Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Preliminary Round | 2nd Leg

Mar 26, 2024 at 1pm UK

Mbombela Stadium

Eswatini
2 - 2
Somalia

(Eswatini win 5-2 on aggregate)

Ndzinisa (48'), Owa Matsebula (50')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Awad (77'), Ahmed (86')

Data Analysis

Coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying Preliminary Round clash between Eswatini and Somalia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Eswatini

Last Game: Somalia 0-3 Eswatini
Wednesday, March 20 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Somalia

Last Game: Somalia 0-3 Eswatini
Wednesday, March 20 at 7pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 78.16%. A draw had a probability of 14.7% and a win for Somalia had a probability of 7.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.57%) and 1-0 (11.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.95%), while for a Somalia win it was 0-1 (2.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood.

Result
Eswatini	Draw	Somalia
78.16% ( -0.24)	14.67% ( 0.19)	7.17% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 41.53% (

-0.44)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

59.12% (

-0.73)

40.88% (

0.73)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.73% (

-0.75)

63.27% (

0.75)

Eswatini Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.45% (

-0.23)

8.55% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

70.43% (

-0.56)

29.57% (

0.56)

Somalia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

45.41% (

-0.37)

54.58% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.37% (

-0.22)

87.63% (

0.22)

Score Analysis

Eswatini 78.15%

Somalia 7.17%

Draw 14.67%

Eswatini	Draw	Somalia
2-0 @ 14.11% ( 0.17) 3-0 @ 11.57% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 11.47% ( 0.26) 2-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 7.12% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 7.01% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 4.31% ( -0.09) 5-0 @ 3.5% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 2.12% ( -0.07) 6-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 1.3% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.55% Total : 78.15%	1-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 2.59% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.47% Total : 14.67%	0-1 @ 2.82% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 2.1% ( 0) Other @ 2.25% Total : 7.17%