Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Round of 16

Jan 30, 2024 at 5pm UK

Amadou Gon Coulibaly Stadium

Mali
2 - 1
Burkina Faso

Tapsoba (3' og.), Sinayoko (47')
Sinayoko (81')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Traore (57' pen.)
Tapsoba (27'), Badolo (72'), Tapsoba (81')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Mali and Burkina Faso, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Namibia 0-0 Mali
Wednesday, January 24 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group E Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Mali	3	2	5
2	South Africa	3	2	4
3	Namibia	3	-3	4
4	Tunisia	3	-1	2

Burkina Faso

All competitions

Africa Cup of Nations

Last Game: Angola 2-0 Burkina Faso
Tuesday, January 23 at 8pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Angola	3	3	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	-1	4
3	Mauritania	3	-1	3
4	Algeria	3	-1	2

We said: Mali 1-0 Burkina Faso

We anticipate a closely-fought contest between these two teams, but Mali are likely to prevail in the end. The Eagles have demonstrated their defensive solidity, which is often a decisive factor in tournament football. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 61.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 15.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.02%) and 2-1 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a Burkina Faso win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
Mali	Draw	Burkina Faso
61.1% ( -0.05)	23.66% ( 0.14)	15.25% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 41.27% (

-0.54)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.94% (

-0.63)

57.06% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.06% (

-0.51)

77.95% (

0.51)

Mali Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.57% (

-0.25)

18.43% (

0.26)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.41% (

-0.43)

49.59% (

0.43)

Burkina Faso Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

50.6% (

-0.5)

49.41% (

0.51)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

15.76% (

-0.36)

84.24% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Mali 61.09%

Burkina Faso 15.25%

Draw 23.65%

Mali	Draw	Burkina Faso
1-0 @ 15.39% ( 0.24) 2-0 @ 13.02% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 7.34% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 3.1% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.81% Total : 61.09%	1-1 @ 10.85% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.22) 2-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.46% Total : 23.65%	0-1 @ 6.42% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 3.83% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.74% Total : 15.25%