Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 21
Jun 26, 2023 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Eva Peron de Junin
We said: Sarmiento 1-0 Atletico Tucuman
Given Sarmiento's solid run of results at home and the visitors showing some semblance of the form they produced last season, this looks set to be a tight match. Neither side have been prolific this season, and it would come as no surprise if the first goal turns out to be the winner.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 40.24% . A win for Atletico Tucuman had a probability of 30.64% and a draw had a probability of 29.1% .
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.4% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.94%) and 2-1 (7.9%) . The likeliest Atletico Tucuman win was 0-1 (11.25%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%) . The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
Result Sarmiento Draw Atletico Tucuman 40.24% ( -0.07) 29.12% ( 0.02) 30.64% ( 0.04)
Both teams to score 43.73% ( -0.04)
37.17% ( -0.05) 62.83% ( 0.05)
17.65% ( -0.04) 82.34% ( 0.04)
69.41% ( -0.06) 30.58% ( 0.07)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 33.18% ( -0.08) 66.82% ( 0.08)
63% ( 0.01) 36.99% ( -0)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 26.22% ( 0) 73.78% ( -0)
Sarmiento 40.23%
Atletico Tucuman 30.64%
Draw 29.11%
Sarmiento Draw Atletico Tucuman 1-0 @ 13.4% 2-0 @ 7.94% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.14% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.12% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.34% Total : 40.23% 1-1 @ 13.32% 0-0 @ 11.31% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.93% ( -0) Other @ 0.55% Total : 29.11% 0-1 @ 11.25% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.63% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.2% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.85% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 1.81% Total : 30.64%
How you voted: Sarmiento vs Tucuman
Sarmiento
Draw
Atletico Tucuman
5
rhs 2.0
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