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Arsenal logo
Premier League | Gameweek 30
Apr 3, 2021 at 8pm UK
Emirates Stadium
Liverpool logo

Arsenal
0 - 3
Liverpool


Magalhaes (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Jota (64', 82'), Salah (68')
Jota (73')

Preview: Arsenal vs. Liverpool - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Premier League clash between Arsenal and Liverpool, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

A blockbuster tie to kickstart proceedings after the latest international break takes place at the Emirates Stadium on Saturday as Arsenal play host to Liverpool in the Premier League.

Two places and four points separate the two faltering sides in the table as things stand, with Liverpool currently occupying seventh spot while the Gunners languish in ninth ahead of their 30th league match of the campaign.

Mikel Arteta's men head into this game on the back of a pulsating 3-3 draw with West Ham United, while Jurgen Klopp's side overcame Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-0 before the international break.


Match preview

Arsenal's Alexandre Lacazette celebrates scoring against West Ham United in the Premier League on March 21, 2021© Reuters

Arsenal's old nemesis Jesse Lingard drew first blood in what looked set to be a comprehensive victory for West Ham at the London Stadium on March 21, as the Manchester United loanee rifled home before the Gunners completely switched off at a free kick and allowed Jarrod Bowen to tap home at the near post.

Things would go from bad to worse for a disconsolate Mikel Arteta as Tomas Soucek trebled West Ham's lead just after the hour mark, with Arsenal's defensive frailties coming to the fore once again, and a Hammers player would also score the fourth goal of the game, but this time Soucek saw Alexandre Lacazette's effort deflect off his leg into the back of the net.

So often instrumental to Arsenal's attacking phases, Martin Odegaard led from the front and had a hand in both of Arsenal's goals in the second half, as a reinvigorated Calum Chambers saw his cross cannon off Craig Dawson into the Hammers net before Lacazette's header completed a phenomenal comeback in the London derby for the Gunners.

While the spirit and tenacity of Arteta's men in the second 45 must be applauded, Liverpool's famed attackers will enjoy a field day if their hosts endure an equally woeful start to the game this weekend, and Arsenal have now gone 12 games without a clean sheet in all competitions since holding Manchester United to a goalless stalemate back in January.

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta pictured on March 6, 2021© Reuters

The Gunners also progressed to the quarter-finals of the Europa League, but even that was not without its disappointment as Olympiacos claimed an inconsequential 1-0 win at the Emirates, and with only three wins to boast from their last nine top-flight matches, any hopes of a top-four finish will be all but extinguished if they fail to come up trumps here.

Indeed, Arteta's side currently sit nine points behind fourth-placed Chelsea ahead of their lunchtime meeting with West Bromwich Albion, while six points separate them from bitter rivals Tottenham Hotspur in sixth, so a successful venture in the Europa League is arguably the Gunners' best opportunity to secure a 27th consecutive season of continental football.

However, the Gunners have managed to navigate their last four Premier League games unbeaten and have claimed deserved victories over Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur in that time, while their FA Cup run last season also proved Arteta's credentials in the big games, and only one of their last eight top-flight matches at the Emirates has ended in defeat - a 1-0 loss to Manchester City on February 21.

Furthermore, Gooners will have extremely fond memories of their most recent Emirates battle with Liverpool, as Lacazette and the forgotten man Reiss Nelson both chalked up goals in a 2-1 triumph last July - by which point Klopp's side had already been crowned champions - and they could beat the Reds in back-to-back home league matches for the first time since April 2015 this weekend.

With Arteta still chopping and changing his centre-backs, Pep Guardiola's former protege must quickly find the optimal defensive formula as Arsenal bid to keep a long-awaited clean sheet on their way to another memorable triumph, but they have not won back-to-back home league matches since October and not many will be placing bets on them ending that barren run here.

Diogo Jota celebrates scoring for Liverpool against Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Premier League on March 15, 2021© Reuters

Diogo Jota returned to Molineux in style to condemn Wolves to a 1-0 defeat in their most recent Premier League outing, although the result of the game was overshadowed by a horrific head injury to his compatriot Rui Patricio in the hosts' goal, as the game came to an end with over 100 minutes on the clock following the veteran's harrowing ordeal.

However, Patricio is confirmed to be doing well after his head injury - relief for Nuno Espirito Santo after his star striker Raul Jimenez was not so lucky a few months ago - but Liverpool did not allow themselves to rest on their laurels after nearly two hours of football as they ended a two-game losing streak in the top flight with that West Midlands triumph.

With a whopping 25 points separating the champions from champions-elect Manchester City, it would take a collapse of catastrophic proportions for Guardiola's side to somehow lose their grip on the crown now, and even Klopp himself has admitted that a Champions League berth is "almost impossible" for his side at this stage.

As is the case with their hosts Arsenal, who will be striving for Europa League glory, Liverpool's hopes of success in Europe are still very much alive as they eased to a 4-0 aggregate victory over RB Leipzig in the Champions League last 16, although they must now overcome serial winners Real Madrid in the quarter-finals to have a shot at lifting the trophy.

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp pictured on March 7, 2021© Reuters

The fortress that was once Anfield has seen its walls crumble since Burnley ended Liverpool's astonishing unbeaten home record in January, but Liverpool have enjoyed far greater success on their travels, as they are currently on a three-game winning streak away from home across all competitions - keeping a clean sheet on each occasion - and four of their last five away outings in the league have ended in victory.

Furthermore, Klopp's team have lost just three of their last 18 away matches continentally and domestically, and with all five of Liverpool's most recent top-flight victories coming on the road, the Reds could match a 65-year-old club record if they prevail at the Emirates this weekend, as their six victories between February and August 1955 all came on rival turf.

On the other hand, Liverpool have only come up trumps in two of their last eight Premier League matches - losing the other six - and interestingly, only one team has found the back of the net in Liverpool's last seven fixtures since Leicester City beat them 3-1 on February 13.

As injuries continue to bedevil Klopp, the former Borussia Dortmund manager would see his side rise to fifth if their endeavours in the capital prove successful, although Chelsea are certainly expected to steer clear in the race for a top-four spot when they do battle with West Brom earlier in the day.

The likes of Andrey Arshavin, Peter Crouch and Robbie Fowler have written their names into Premier League folklore with their goal-laden performances in this fixture down the years, but with several players on both teams returning to action after a gruelling international period, the victors of this battle may simply be the ones with the freshest legs on the Emirates turf.

Arsenal Premier League form:
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • D

Arsenal form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D

Liverpool Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W

Liverpool form (all competitions):
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W



Team News

Liverpool's Roberto Firmino celebrates scoring against Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League on December 16, 2020© Reuters

Two of Arsenal's brightest youngsters in Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe are struggling with hamstring and thigh injuries respectively - with the former having to pull out of England duty - and the attacking duo remain doubts ahead of the visit of Liverpool.

Saka's possible absence would give Nicolas Pepe the chance to flourish on the right wing, although Willian is available again, and the Ivorian will likely be joined by Odegaard, Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, with the latter rediscovering his goalscoring touch for Gabon during the international break.

Granit Xhaka has been dealing with a bout of sickness and is also doubtful, while Gabriel Magalhaes and Rob Holding should form the centre-back pairing with David Luiz injured, but Arteta has a huge call to make on the right-hand side of defence.

Hector Bellerin was dropped from the squad to face West Ham and Chambers grasped his opportunity with both hands, but given the speed and directness of Liverpool's wide men, the agile Bellerin may be preferred by Arteta this weekend.

Liverpool would love to welcome Roberto Firmino back to the fold this weekend given his extraordinary strike rate against Arsenal, and the Brazilian forward has indeed returned to training following a knee injury and could be available this weekend.

It would be harsh to drop Jota, but Firmino enjoys playing Arsenal more than any other team in the top flight and will hope to be given the nod alongside the effervescent Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane, the latter of whom has scored four of his seven Premier League goals this season in London.

Fabinho is able to marshal the midfield with Nat Phillips and Ozan Kabak forming a protective barrier in front of Alisson, while Trent Alexander-Arnold put in a decent shift against Wolves, but it was not enough to see him earn a place in the England squad.

Joe Gomez, Virgil van Dijk, Jordan Henderson and Joel Matip complete a quartet of long-term absentees for Liverpool, and Divock Origi is also out with a muscular problem, but the cult hero is expected to depart Anfield this summer anyway.

Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Bellerin, Holding, Gabriel, Tierney; Partey, Elneny; Pepe, Odegaard, Aubameyang; Lacazette

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Phillips, Kabak, Robertson; Fabinho, Wijnaldum, Thiago; Salah, Firmino, Mane


Head To Head

Saturday's battle will mark the 233rd meeting between Arsenal and Liverpool in all competitions, with the capital outfit boasting 81 wins compared to Liverpool's 90 since 1893.

A total of 166 goals have been scored in fixtures between the two sides in the Premier League - the most out of any top-flight fixture since 1992 - and the 94 goals that Arsenal have conceded to Liverpool is their most against any team in the competition.

The champions have only claimed two wins from their last 20 Premier League away games on Arsenal turf, but Roberto Firmino has struck eight goals in 12 matches against the Gunners - his best tally against a single opponent in his career so far.


SM words green background

We say: Arsenal 1-1 Liverpool

Arsenal need no lessons in turning up the heat when it matters most, but another disastrous opening 30 minutes this weekend would have fatal consequences against Klopp's attacking powers. Neither side embodies consistency and are far from where they would like to be in the table, so there is no reason for Arteta or Klopp to opt for a conservative style in what is certainly a winnable tie for both teams.

Losing Saka and Smith Rowe would be a significant blow to Arsenal, but Liverpool's injury woes are almost unparalleled despite the return of Firmino. Both teams are also likely to have one eye on their upcoming European battles, although this should be a fascinating showdown nonetheless, and we ultimately expect a share of the spoils at the Emirates.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data


Video prediction

Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 50.65%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 25.3% and a draw had a probability of 24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (8.55%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-0 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Arsenal vs Liverpool

Arsenal
33.6%
Draw
17.2%
Liverpool
49.3%
134
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Martin Odegaard in action for Arsenal on February 14, 2021
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Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool15113131131836
2Chelsea16104237191834
3Arsenal1686229151430
4Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest168442119228
5Manchester CityMan City168352823527
6Bournemouth167452421325
7Aston Villa167452425-125
8Fulham166642422224
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton166642625124
10Tottenham HotspurSpurs1672736191723
11Brentford167273230223
12Newcastle UnitedNewcastle166552321223
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd166462119222
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham165472129-819
15Crystal Palace163761721-416
16Everton153661421-715
17Leicester CityLeicester163582134-1314
18Ipswich TownIpswich162681628-1212
19Wolverhampton WanderersWolves1623112440-169
20Southampton1612131136-255


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