Chapecoense return home still searching for this first victory at Arena Conda in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A when they battle Atletico Goianiense on Friday.
The team from Santa Catarina are currently on a three-game losing streak in league play and have dropped their previous two road matches, while Goianiense scored in the 95th minute on Monday to beat Bahia 2-1, extending their unbeaten run to five games.
Match preview
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Mercifully this nightmare season will soon be over for Chape, who have been poor defensively all year, and that was the case throughout November, as they conceded multiple goals in their final five league fixtures.
Yet again, Felipe Paiva Endres saw his side play far too timidly on the road on Tuesday as they found themselves trailing late in the first half against America Mineiro and could not get into any rhythm to try to get back into the game.
When they find themselves behind going into half-time, this group seem to lose their desire and fighting spirit, having scored once in their previous five encounters in which they were losing after 45 minutes, although they did not score that one goal, but they were aided by Gremio defender Bruno Cortez, who put the ball in the back of his own net last month.
Despite only coming away with one victory domestically so far this year, the Serie B champions from 2020 have produced their share of positive results, and they came close to claiming a win against the same Dragao side that they will face on Friday, as they conceded in injury time against them back in August in a 1-1 draw.
More than half of their points (seven of 12) that they have collected in this campaign have come when they were able to have a man advantage thanks to some red cards issued to their opponents. However, the majority of those expulsions, as is often the case in Brazil, happened either late in a match or into injury time.
Dragao have done well to maintain their advantage against the sides below them, but they may need at least a couple more wins to ensure their place in Serie A for a second successive campaign.
Four points currently separate themselves from Bahia and a trip back down into the second tier of Brazilian football, so Marcelo Cabo knows that they cannot afford to get too comfortable just yet.
Cabo is in his third spell at the club, and he has yet to lose in his first four matches in charge this time around as they currently sit in 13th, just a point back of Sao Paulo for a place in the Copa Sudamericana next year.
Years ago, the former defender, a futsal player in Brazil, helped this club achieve some great things, capturing the Campeonato Goiano last year and leading them to the Serie B title in his first stint as manager in 2016.
Their setup has enabled them to maintain a more robust defensive shape, conceding only three goals in their last four games, but their holding midfielders have had a hard time coming up with some imaginative thinking or creativity to trouble opposing teams.
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Team News
Chape were missing the presence of a solid playmaker in their defeat to America this week, and Anderson Leite, who missed that match with a yellow card suspension, is the closest thing that they have to a creative player in the middle of the field with two assists this season, which is even with Mike, Busanello, Lima, Ravanelli and Jordan for the most on the team.
Anselmo Ramon tallied from the penalty spot for Chape in their draw against Goianiense earlier this year, as he is second on the team in that department behind Mike and one ahead of Geuvanio, Pedro Perotti and Kaio Nunes.
Joao Paulo, who is second in scoring on Atletico with four goals, scored the equaliser from the penalty spot at home in injury time versus Chape, as he is two back of Ze Roberto for the team lead.
Marlon Freitas notched the winner from the penalty spot for Goianiense on Monday, his third of the campaign, while Janderson gave them some insurance with his second of the year in injury time and Lucao collected his only assist of the campaign.
Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Paulo; Busanello, Ignacio, Joilson, Ezequiel; Ronei, Junior; Marquinho, Perotti, Mike; Nunes
Atletico Goianiense possible starting lineup:
Miguel; Dudu, Eder, P. Henrique, A. Henrique; Freitas, Baralhas, Paulo, Luis; Janderson, Ze Roberto
We say: Chapecoense 0-1 Atletico Goianiense
Chape have conceded five goals in their previous two home games and allowed 24 shots in their defeat to Gremio, but lucky for them, Atletico are not all that clinical in the final third, but they should be able to bury at least one of their opportunities as the team at the bottom of the table allow their fair share of them each game.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chapecoense win with a probability of 37.81%. A win for Atletico Goianiense had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chapecoense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.99%). The likeliest Atletico Goianiense win was 0-1 (10.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Atletico Goianiense in this match.
