Two teams who could definitely do with a victory lock horns at the AFAS Stadion on Saturday when AZ Alkmaar play host to Vitesse.
With the sides separated by just one place in the Eredivisie table as it stands, this weekend's contest has all the makings of an absorbing affair.
Match preview
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AZ Alkmaar had to settle for a point last time out following a 2-2 draw against Willem II at the Konig Willem II Stadion on March 20.
Pascal Jansen's men found themselves two goals down inside the opening 17 minutes thanks to strikes from Che Nunnely and Elton Kabangu before Bruno Martins Indi and Zakaria Aboukhlal scored in either half to force a share of the spoils.
The Cheeseheads have now dropped to fifth place in the standings but are still just three points shy of Feyenoord in the race for a Europa League spot.
Standing in their way next is an opposing side with just one loss in the last five meetings between the teams, picking up two wins and two draws.
However, only the current top two have amassed more points on home turf than Saturday's hosts, who have come out on top in nine of 13 league games in front of their fans this term.
Vitesse fell to a 2-1 defeat against RKC Waalwijk at the GelreDome in their last outing before the international break.
Thomas Letsch's men broke the deadlock in the sixth minute through Lois Openda before goals from Melle Meulensteen and Alexander Buttner turned the game on its head.
Geel en Zwart remain sixth in the league table, but a couple of teams in and around are beginning to bear down on them.
Saturday's visitors take on Cambuur in their next league outing on April 10 while their hosts face off against PEC Zwolle.
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Team News
Fredrik Midtsjo has not featured in over a month due to a hamstring injury, and the midfielder is a doubt for Saturday's contest.
Nineteen-year-old Yusuf Barasi remains out with a knee problem, while Jelle Duin recently underwent surgery and is currently unavailable.
Vangelis Pavlidis is one to keep an eye on after the forward grabbed a brace in his last home appearance for AZ.
Eric Verstappen is Vitesse's only absentee for this one as the goalkeeper continues to battle with a long-tern shoulder injury.
Lois Openda's opener last time out was his 12th strike of the season, and the 22-year-old will be looking to continue his rich vein of form having already surpassed his personal best of 10 league goals.
AZ Alkmaar possible starting lineup:
Vindahl; Wijndal, Martins Indi, Chatzidiakos, Witry; Clasie, Reijnders; Karlsson, De Wit, Sugawara; Pavlidis
Vitesse possible starting lineup:
Houwen; Oroz, Doekhi, Bazoer; Wittek, Dasa, Tronstad, Gboho, Domgjoni; Frederiksen, Openda
We say: AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Vitesse
The onus is more on AZ Alkmaar to take control of proceedings and get the job done in front of their fans. We fancy them to carry the day at the sound of the full-time whistle.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 60.99%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 16.92%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.32%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Vitesse win it was 0-1 (5.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
