Bayer Leverkusen host Augsburg on Monday as they look to overtake their opponents and climb up the 2020-21 Bundesliga table.
Leverkusen recorded their first win of the season with a 1-0 win at Mainz 05 last weekend, while Augsburg's unbeaten start came to an end with a 2-0 defeat at home to RB Leipzig.
Match preview
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It was not a particularly pretty win for Leverkusen at struggling Mainz, who are now the only remaining side in the league without a point, with Lucas Alario's header somehow allowed to squeeze past opposing goalkeeper Robin Zentner for the decisive goal of the game.
Peter Bosz could not have cared less, though, with it being his side's first win of the league campaign. They do remain unbeaten, however, having drawn all three of their opening games, and are looking more assured defensively having only conceded six shots on target in four league matches.
With Kai Havertz and Kevin Volland departing for Chelsea and Monaco respectively in the transfer window, goals have been a little hard to come by, but confidence should be flowing once more after a superb 6-2 win over Nice in the Europa League in midweek.
Alario, Moussa Diaby and Karim Bellarabi were all amongst the goals as Patrick Vieira's side were convincingly thumped. Bosz will be hoping their early season slump is behind them and they can begin to mount another challenge for the Champions League qualification places.
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Heiko Herrlich will not have been too concerned by his side's home defeat to Leipzig having gained seven points from their opening three games.
While Angelino was allowed a little too much freedom to ghost undetected at the back post and head the visitors into the lead, there was absolutely nothing which could be done about Yussuf Poulsen's stunning volley - reminiscent of Marco van Basten's famous goal in the Euro 1988 final - to seal the three points for Leipzig.
Having finished 15th last season, just one place above the relegation playoff position, any improvement on that will be seen as a solid season for Augsburg, who are perennially punching above their weight these days.
The 48-year-old former Germany international will be more motivated than ever on Monday, meanwhile, having managed Leverkusen for almost 18 months between 2017 and 2018. His 50% win rate during his time there was very respectable indeed, but the Leverkusen board felt Bosz was the man to take the club forward, which potentially provides an extra edge to this game.
Bayer Leverkusen Bundesliga form: DDDW
Bayer Leverkusen form (all competitions): WDDDWW
Augsburg Bundesliga form: WWDL
Augsburg form (all competitions): WWWDL
Team News
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The hosts will continue to be without Patrick Schick (thigh), Paulinho (knee) and Santiago Arias (ankle), with Charles Aranguiz and Tim Jedvaj doubtful due to an abdominal strain and illness respectively.
Alario is likely to continue to lead the line in Schick's absence, with Julian Baumgartlinger anchoring the midfield should Aranguiz fail to be passed fit.
Herrlich will be without Jan Moravek (muscular) and Alfred Finnbogason (thigh) as he returns to his former stomping ground.
Florian Niederlechner, who scored 13 league goals and created eight more, only came on as a substitute in the defeat to Leipzig having failed to score this season. Fredrik Jensen is likely to make way for him here, though.
Bayer Leverkusen possible starting lineup:
Hradecky; L. Bender, S. Bender, Tapsoba, Sinkgraven; Baumgartlinger, Demirbay, Wirtz; Bellarabi, Alario, Diaby
Augsburg possible starting lineup:
Gikiewicz; Framberger, Gouweleeuw, Udookhai, Pedersen; Hahn, Khedira, Strobl, Caligiuri; Gregoritsch, Niederlechner
We say: Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 Augsburg
Herrlicher has done brilliant work to make Augsburg tougher to beat, particularly on the road with 12 points in his seven away league games since taking charge in March, but we suspect Leverkusen will have a little too much for them here now that they appear to be adjusting to life without Havertz and Volland in attack.
Top betting tip
Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting under 3.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Under 3.5:data
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 56.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Augsburg had a probability of 21.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.9%) and 2-0 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for an Augsburg win it was 0-1 (5.64%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
