Belenenses welcome Pacos de Ferreira to Estadio do Restelo on Sunday afternoon sitting just two points above the Primeira Liga relegation zone.
The visitors have put together a three-match unbeaten streak in Portugal's top flight, form which has kept them in fifth position in the standings.
Match preview
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Earlier in the season, Belenenses were sitting comfortably in mid-table as a result of losing just two of their opening nine matches.
However, despite remaining in 12th spot, recording just one point from a possible nine has left Nuno Oliveira's team looking over their shoulders to the chasing pack.
Holding the second-best defensive record in the division means that Os Azuis do Restelo have the tools to keep themselves out of trouble, but they will be eager to get a third win on the board as quickly as possible.
While their recent return looks poor, they only suffered a 2-1 defeat when playing hosts to leaders Sporting Lisbon, with that setback being followed by a share of the spoils with Gil Vicente.
On the negative side, only Miguel Cardoso has scored more than once in the league this season, his two goals being netted in his last four appearances.
Opponents Pacos de Ferreira can currently regard themselves as one of the form teams in the division having come through their last three contests without suffering a defeat.
Although those five points were collected from the current bottom three, it has kept things ticking over for a club who have ambitions to return to the European stage after a seven-year absence.
Pepa and his squad will not be thinking too far ahead at this stage of the campaign, but every win collected now will only heap the pressure on nearest challengers Maritimo.
Douglas Tanque netted a double in the most recent success over Rio Ave, taking his tally for the season to five goals from 11 appearances.
Belenenses Primeira Liga form: DDWLLD
Belenenses form (all competitions): DWLWLD
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: WWLDDW
Pacos de Ferreira form (all competitions): LLLDDW
Team News
Teixeira will be able to call upon Thibang Phete and Tomas Ribeiro, who both return after serving their suspensions.
Francisco Teixeira is pushing for his first start of the season after being introduced as an early replacement for Silvestre Varela against Gil Vicente.
Marco Baizinho could replace Marcelo in the middle of the Pacos de Ferreira backline after his second-half outing versus Rio Ave.
Barring any late fitness issues, that could be the one alteration to the team.
Belenenses possible starting lineup:
Kritsyuk; Esgaio, Silva, Henriques; Calila, Yaya, Taira, Lima; Teixeira, Cardoso, Sousa
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Baizinho, Maracas, Uilton; Carlos, Eustaquio, Costa; Ferreira, Tanque, Singh
We say: Belenenses 1-1 Pacos de Ferreira
The defensive record of Belenenses is keeping the club outside of the bottom two, and we expect the home side to avoid defeat at the weekend. However, the visitors performed solidly against similar level of opposition in recent weeks, leading us to predict a low-scoring draw.
Top betting tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 45.51%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Belenenses had a probability of 26.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.23%) and 1-2 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.97%), while for a Belenenses win it was 1-0 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
