Borussia Dortmund will try to avoid one of the greatest European upsets in history when they host Sporting Lisbon on Wednesday at Signal Iduna Park in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 playoff tie.
BVB won the reverse fixture 3-0 on February 11 with all three goals coming in a dominant second-half display, while Sporting never truly threatened their Bundesliga opponents despite producing 13 shots.
Match preview
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Dortmund triumphed thanks to goals from Serhou Guirassy, Pascal Gross and Karim Adeyemi, with the first two scorers finding the back of the net in near-identical fashion, finishing after deliveries deep on the right flank were played towards the back post.
The hosts finished 10th in the Champions League table with 15 points and only missed out on automatic qualification for the round of 16 by one point, with the team losing three times in the league phase despite scoring first in two of those matches.
Manager Niko Kovac has been in charge for three games but has lost two times, including on Saturday when his team were beaten 2-0 in the Bundesliga by second last VfL Bochum.
In fact, BVB are in 11th place in the German top-flight with just 29 points and are eight points behind fourth-placed RB Leipzig, who occupy the division's final Champions League qualification spot.
Kovac's side have lost two of their last three but have won three and drawn one of their past six in all competitions, scoring 11 and conceding eight in that time.
Dortmund's record at home has also been poor in recent weeks given they have drawn three, been defeated in three and triumphed in just one of their last seven at Signal Iduna Park, but they have not lost at home by a margin of three or more goals in 31 matches.
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As for Sporting, though they hit the crossbar against their German opponents in the 18th minute, that strike was from distance and was the closest they came to opening the scoring.
Head coach Rui Borges's side are currently first in the Primeira Liga with 52 points, though they only lead second-placed Benfica by two points and have been held to stalemates in their last two league outings.
The Lions did manage to beat Manchester City by a three-goal margin in this season's edition of the Champions League when they triumphed 4-1 against the English champions on November 5, and they also defeated Bundesliga side Eintracht Frankfurt 3-0 in September 2022.
Sporting have failed to win their past three fixtures – drawing two and losing one – and have lost four of their last five in the Champions League.
The Portuguese club are also winless in seven of their eight most recent away games, being held to a stalemate in three and succumbing to defeat in three, and have lost seven and drawn three of their past 10 on the road in Europe's premier competition.
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Kovac comes into Tuesday's clash with relatively few absentees in his squad, though midfielder Felix Nmecha and defender Ramy Bensebaini will not return to action until March.
Dortmund could start a back four consisting of Julian Ryerson, Emre Can, Nico Schlotterbeck and Daniel Svensson.
Gross scored in last week's Champions League clash, and he may be joined in a double pivot by Salih Ozcan, while striker Guirassy could be flanked by Adeyemi and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens.
Meanwhile, Sporting will be without full-backs Geny Catamo and Nuno Santos, and their absences could lead Borges to start Ivan Fresneda and Matheus Reis in a back four.
Expect the visitors to line up with Zeno Debast and Morten Hjulmand in the middle of the pitch considering they are unable to select midfielder Daniel Braganca for the rest of the season due to a ligament injury.
Attacker Pedro Goncalves is also sidelined because of a ligament injury, and that makes Francisco Trincao and Biel the most probable candidates to play either side of striker Viktor Gyokeres.
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Ryerson, Can, Schlotterbeck, Svensson; Ozcan, Gross; Adeyemi, Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens; Guirassy
Sporting Lisbon possible starting lineup:
Silva; Fresneda, Diomande, Quaresma, Reis; Debast, Hjulmand; Trincao, Simoes, Biel; Gyokeres
We say: Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Sporting Lisbon (Dortmund win 5-2 on aggregate)
Sporting will not be able to sit back and absorb pressure given they trail by three goals, and they may concede several chances during counter-attacks.
While Dortmund are unlikely to keep a clean sheet considering their poor form this campaign, the hosts will not care about the details of the second leg as long as they progress to the round of 16.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Lewis Nolan
