Borussia Dortmund will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to Bayern Munich when they continue their 2019-20 Bundesliga season away to basement side SC Paderborn on Sunday.
BVB saw their six-game winning run in the league ended by Bayern on Tuesday, and the result has left them seven points behind the reigning champions ahead of the next set of fixtures in Germany's top flight.
Match preview
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Paderborn secured back-to-back promotions between 2017 and 2019 to return to the Bundesliga, but there is no getting away from the fact that it has been a tough campaign for the club.
Indeed, a total of 19 points from their 28 matches has left them bottom of the table, nine points behind 15th-placed Mainz 05 on the same number of games, which is an indication of their struggles this term.
Steffen Baumgart's team have actually drawn their three matches since the return of the Bundesliga on May 16, sharing the points with Fortuna Dusseldorf, Hoffenheim and Augsburg.
Sooner or later wins are going to have to arrive if the club are to escape their difficult position in the table. Paderborn's next two are incredibly tough, though, as they will host Dortmund this weekend before travelling to free-scoring RB Leipzig in their next game on June 6.
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Dortmund, meanwhile, will be determined to bounce back from the disappointment of Tuesday's loss to Bayern. Lucien Favre's side entered the match off the back of six straight league victories, but a first-half goal from Joshua Kimmich saw the reigning champions pick up all three points at Signal Iduna Park.
BVB had beaten Schalke 04 and Wolfsburg in their two matches since returning to action, but the defeat to Bayern has left them seven points off the summit on the same number of games.
Leipzig are just two points behind in third position, meanwhile, and there are actually only four points between fifth-placed Bayer Leverkusen and Dortmund, showing the importance of this weekend's contest.
Favre's side have the best home record in the division this season, but they have only won seven of their 14 Bundesliga matches on their travels during the 2019-20 campaign.
The Black and Yellows were also held on their last visit to Paderborn in the league in November 2014, while the two teams played out a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
Paderborn Bundesliga form: LLLDDD
Dortmund Bundesliga form: WWWWWL
Dortmund form (all competitions): WWLWWL
Team News
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Paderborn will be without the services of Albanian midfielder Klaus Gjasula through suspension, while Luca Kilian will again miss out with a thigh problem.
Streli Mamba has recently overcome a knee problem and should start, though, while Christopher Antwi-Adjei has also shaken off a thigh complaint over the last couple of weeks.
There are not expected to be many changes from the side that picked up a point against Augsburg last time out, although Marlon Ritter could take Gjasula's position in the middle of the park.
As for Dortmund, Erling Braut Haaland is expected to miss out with the knee problem that he picked up against Bayern, meaning that a reshuffle in the final third could be required.
Haaland's likely absence could open the door for Jadon Sancho to start, with the England international, who continues to be linked with Manchester United, named on the bench since the Bundesliga resumed.
Thorgan Hazard could be given the role through the middle, while Emre Can is also in line to start, having featured twice off the bench since missing the clash with Schalke on May 16 through injury.
Dortmund do still have injury problems, however, with Dan-Axel Zagadou, Nico Schulz and Marco Reus all on the sidelines ahead of the contest at the Benteler-Arena.
Paderborn possible starting lineup:
Zingergie; Jans, Hunemeier, Schonlau, Collins; Antwi-Adjei, Vasiliadis, Ritter, Proger; Srbeny, Mamba
Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Burki; Piszczek, Hummels, Akanji; Hakimi, Dahoud, Can, Guerreiro; Sancho, Hazard, Brandt
We say: Paderborn 0-2 Dortmund
Dortmund's away form this season has been far from perfect, but Paderborn have the second-worst home form in the Bundesliga this term, picking up just eight points from 14 matches. Favre's side will be determined to return to winning ways, and we fancy BVB to collect all three points in routine fashion.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 60.87%. A win for SC Paderborn had a probability of 19.91% and a draw had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.38%) and 1-3 (7.3%). The likeliest SC Paderborn win was 2-1 (5.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-6 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
