Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 44.7%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Gremio had a probability of 26.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.06%), while for a Gremio win it was 0-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.