Two sides who are sitting in the relegation zone of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A lock horns on Saturday, as Gremio host America Mineiro.
Luis Felipe Scolari's men have scored the fewest goals in the league so far this season, finding the net just five times from their 10 matches, while the visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their five away games.
Match preview
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At the 10th time of asking, Gremio finally claimed their first league win of the season, beating Fluminense 1-0 away from home last Sunday, though it did come in controversial circumstances.
The game was seemingly heading for a goalless draw before a dubious penalty was awarded to the visitors in the 90th minute, as Lucas Calegari was deemed to have tripped Alisson inside the area; Cesar Pinares stepped up and sent goalkeeper Muriel the wrong way to snatch all three points at the death.
Gremio have now moved off the foot of the Brasileiro table, though they remain in the relegation zone and five points from safety.
Scolari was hoping his side could claim a third successive win across all competitions on Tuesday, but they came up short against LDU Quito in the last-16 of the Copa Libertadores. The Immortal Tricolor lost 2-1 in the second leg and were subsequently eliminated by the away goals rule with the tie level at 2-2.
Gremio now turn their attention back to the Brazilian top-flight with three of their next four league fixtures against teams currently sat with them in the bottom five.
Saturday's opponents America Mineiro are up first and having beaten them in each of their last three home matches, without conceding, Scolari's men will fancy their chances of claiming another three points at the Arena do Gremio.
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America Mineiro will also feel that they have a good chance in claiming points this weekend against a side who are also in the relegation zone.
A run of three successive defeats without scoring a goal – against Fortaleza, Atletico Mineiro and most recently at home to Sport Recife on Tuesday – has seen them drop into the bottom four and two points adrift from safety.
Head coach Vagner Mancini, who replaced Lisca at the end of June, had a strong start to his reign, claiming seven points from his first three matches, but the realisation has now kicked in that this campaign will prove challenging.
The Coelho were promoted as runners up from the Brasileiro Serie B last season and their primary target will be survival; winning games against teams around them, such as Gremio, is a must if their top-flight status is to remain intact.
Victory for America on Saturday will see them climb out of the drop zone, though a win for Sao Paulo against Flamengo on Sunday would see Mancini's men slip straight back into the bottom four.
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Team News
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Gremio will be without Ferreira (knee), Thiago Santos (thigh), Maicon (calf), Elias Manoel (ankle) and Leo Gomes (knee) due to injury.
Goalkeeper Brenno Costa and midfielder Matheus Henrique are also unavailable, as they are with the Brazilian national team in Tokyo for the 2020 Olympics.
Scolari could name the same starting lineup for the third successive game, which would see Jean Pyerre keep his place up front alongside Diego Souza.
As for America Mineiro, Ribamar (thigh), Kawe (shoulder), Ademir Santos (thigh), Marlon (knee) and Luiz Fernando (knee) are all ruled out with injuries.
Mancini is set to stick with his 3-4-1-2 formation, which will likely see Eduardo Bauermann, Ricardo Silva and Ze Vitor all keep their places at centre-back.
Striker Carlos Alberto, who was the last player to score for the Coelho three weeks ago, is set to start up front alongside Felipe Azevedo.
Gremio possible starting lineup:
Chapeco; Vanderson, Geromel, Kannemann, Cortez; L. Pereira, F. Pereira, Bobsin, Alisson; Souza, Pyerre
America Mineiro possible starting lineup:
Cavichioli; Bauermann, Silva, Vitor; Eduardo, Ricardo, Juninho, Ruschel; Daniel; Alberto, Azevedo
We say: Gremio 1-0 America Mineiro
Both sides have struggled so far this season but they will view Saturday's fixture as a good opportunity to get some points on the board.
America Mineiro have conceded 12 of their 17 goals away from home this campaign, including seven in their last two games. These defensive frailties will encourage Gremio, who we feel can secure a narrow victory on home soil.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 54.82%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 20.34%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.8%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.71%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
