Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sport Recife win with a probability of 39.43%. A win for Corinthians had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sport Recife win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Corinthians win was 0-1 (11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sport Recife in this match.