Champions League | Last 16 | 1st Leg
Feb 23, 2022 at 8pm UK
Estádio da Luz
Benfica2 - 2Ajax
We said: Benfica 1-3 Ajax
A trip to Benfica will present a significantly sterner test than what Ajax have become used to in the Eredivisie, but the hosts are still finding their feet under Verissimo and cannot expect to emulate their group-stage win over Barcelona with ease. Borussia Dortmund, Sporting and Besiktas were all no match for this free-scoring and defensively watertight Ajax outfit in the group stage, and we expect Ten Hag's side to claim a healthy first-leg advantage on Wednesday. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 51.89%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (7.61%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (6.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Ajax |
| 25.62% | 22.48% | 51.89% |
| Both teams to score 60.87% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
