Champions League

Champions League | Last 16 | 2nd Leg

Mar 15, 2022 at 8pm UK

Amsterdam Arena

Ajax
0 - 1
Benfica

(Benfica win 3-2 on aggregate)

Maduro (83'), Blind (90+4'), Gravenberch (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Nunez (77')
Ramos (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Ajax and Benfica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

Last Six:

Last Game: Vitesse 2-2 Ajax
Sunday, May 15 at 1.30pm in Eredivisie

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Ajax	33	79	82
2	PSV Eindhoven	33	43	78
3	Feyenoord	33	43	71

Benfica

Last Six:

Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 0-2 Benfica
Friday, May 13 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
2	Sporting Lisbon	33	47	82
3	Benfica	33	47	71
4	Braga	32	20	62

We said: Ajax 3-1 Benfica (Ajax win 5-3 on aggregate)

Ajax need no lessons in putting the ball in the back of the net at home - whether that be against domestic or continental counterparts - and Ten Hag's side can pick Benfica off as the Portuguese side go in search of goals themselves. While Darwin Nunez is always a threat in and around the box, we cannot back Benfica with any real confidence even with the fit-again Yaremchuk named in the squad, and Ajax will enter this battle as the firm favourites to book their quarter-final tickets. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 56.02%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 23.19% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.3%) and 1-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (5.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.

Result
Ajax	Draw	Benfica
56.02%	20.79%	23.19%

Both teams to score 64.17%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.51%

33.49%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.71%

55.29%

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.98%

12.03%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.51%

37.5%

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.94%

27.06%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

37.57%

62.44%

Score Analysis

Ajax 56.02%

Benfica 23.2%

Draw 20.79%

Ajax	Draw	Benfica
2-1 @ 9.54% 2-0 @ 7.3% 1-0 @ 6.89% 3-1 @ 6.74% 3-0 @ 5.16% 3-2 @ 4.4% 4-1 @ 3.57% 4-0 @ 2.73% 4-2 @ 2.33% 5-1 @ 1.51% 5-0 @ 1.16% 4-3 @ 1.02% 5-2 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.69% Total : 56.02%	1-1 @ 9.01% 2-2 @ 6.24% 0-0 @ 3.26% 3-3 @ 1.92% Other @ 0.37% Total : 20.79%	1-2 @ 5.89% 0-1 @ 4.25% 0-2 @ 2.78% 2-3 @ 2.72% 1-3 @ 2.57% 0-3 @ 1.21% Other @ 3.78% Total : 23.2%