Champions League

Champions League | Group Stage

Dec 13, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
5 - 3
Shakhtar

Galeno (9', 43'), Taremi (62'), Pepe (75'), Conceicao (82')
Ramos (30'), Conceicao (30')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Sikan (29'), Eustaquio (72' og.), de Sousa Lemos (88')
Sudakov (54'), Nazaryna (90'), Bondar (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Porto and Shakhtar Donetsk, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Porto

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Porto 3-1 Casa Pia
Saturday, December 9 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Shakhtar Donetsk

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Shakhtar 2-0 Veres
Friday, December 8 at 3pm in Ukrainian Premier League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Porto 2-1 Shakhtar Donetsk

For all of Shakhtar's recent defensive mastery, the Ukrainian side may abandon their principles on Wednesday given their overriding need for a first-ever win over Porto, who have always had the visitors' number down the years. It is not impossible to envisage Costa's goal being breached, but as Shakhtar commit bodies forward, Porto's attacking contingent can launch a couple of devastating counter-attacks to advance to the last 16 and force the visitors to accept a Europa League demotion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 63.03%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Shakhtar Donetsk had a probability of 18.17%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.92%) and 3-1 (7.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for a Shakhtar Donetsk win it was 1-2 (4.85%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Porto	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
63.03% ( -0.26)	18.8% ( 0.03)	18.17% ( 0.24)

Both teams to score 63.26% (

0.39)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

68.91% (

0.28)

31.09% (

-0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.5% (

0.33)

52.49% (

-0.33)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.49% (

0.02)

9.5% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.13% (

0.04)

31.87% (

-0.04)

Shakhtar Donetsk Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.9% (

0.41)

30.1% (

-0.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.76% (

0.49)

66.23% (

-0.49)

Score Analysis

Porto 63.03%

Shakhtar Donetsk 18.17%

Draw 18.8%

Porto	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
2-1 @ 9.51% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( -0.11) 3-1 @ 7.46% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 6.73% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 6.22% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 4.48% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.39% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.66% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 2.07% 5-0 @ 1.72% ( -0.02) 5-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.01) 4-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.94% Total : 63.03%	1-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.04) 3-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.36% Total : 18.8%	1-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.59% Total : 18.17%