Primeira Liga | Gameweek 12
Dec 2, 2023 at 6pm UK
Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho
We said: Famalicao 1-2 Porto
Porto have an excellent record against this opponent and also have the added incentive of moving into pole position in the league standings overnight if they can claim all three points in this one. The hosts will certainly not be a pushover, but we feel the Dragons will outscore them by the final whistle.
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Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 47.92% . A win for Famalicao had a probability of 27.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.7% .
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.43%) and 0-2 (8.17%) . The likeliest Famalicao win was 1-0 (7.28%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%) . The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood . Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result Famalicao Draw Porto 27.35% ( 0.83) 24.73% ( -0.24) 47.92% ( -0.59)
Both teams to score 54.76% ( 1.44)
52.16% ( 1.58) 47.83% ( -1.58)
29.98% ( 1.44) 70.02% ( -1.43)
68.46% ( 1.49) 31.54% ( -1.48)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 32.07% ( 1.68) 67.93% ( -1.68)
79.99% ( 0.38) 20.01% ( -0.38)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 47.79% ( 0.61) 52.21% ( -0.61)
Famalicao 27.35%
Porto 47.92%
Draw 24.72%
Famalicao Draw Porto 1-0 @ 7.28% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 6.76% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 4.2% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 2.6% ( 0.17) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.16) 3-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.79% Total : 27.35% 1-1 @ 11.71% ( -0.15) 0-0 @ 6.31% ( -0.42) 2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.21) 3-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.72% 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.55) 1-2 @ 9.43% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.34) 1-3 @ 5.06% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.15) 1-4 @ 2.03% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.03) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.85% Total : 47.92%
How you voted: Famalicao vs Porto
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rhs 2.0
LT: 2024-06-30 21:37:42
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