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Champions League
Qarabag
Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 12, 2022 at 5pm UK
Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu

Qarabag FK
5 - 1
Lech Poznan

Kady (14', 74'), Ozobic (42'), Medina (56'), Huseynov (77')
Richard (19'), Medina (30'), Cafarquliyev (78'), Kady (89')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Velde (1')
Milic (55')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Qarabag FK and Lech Poznan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

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Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Qarabag FK
Tuesday, July 5 at 7pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Lech Poznan

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lech Poznan 1-0 Qarabag FK
Tuesday, July 5 at 7pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Qarabag FK 1-1 Lech Poznan (Lech Poznan win 2-1 on aggregate)

 As both sides carry a goal threat and are used to taking the initiative, there could be opportunities at either end, following a relatively cagey first leg. The Polish champions should progress, but it may require a backs-to-the-wall effort to secure their passage to the second qualifying round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lech Poznan win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lech Poznan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.42%) and 0-2 (7.08%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.04%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawLech Poznan
29.94% (-0.013000000000002 -0.01) 23.87%46.18% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 59.51% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
57.58%42.41% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.18% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)64.82% (0.0040000000000049 0)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
73.08% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)26.92% (0.010999999999999 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.76% (-0.012 -0.01)62.24% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Lech Poznan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.42% (0.0080000000000098 0.01)18.58% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.15% (0.010000000000005 0.01)49.84% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 29.95%
    Lech Poznan 46.18%
    Draw 23.87%
Qarabag FKDrawLech Poznan
2-1 @ 7.25% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-0 @ 6.56% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-0 @ 4.31% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.17% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-0 @ 1.88% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.04% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.06%
Total : 29.95%
1-1 @ 11.04%
2-2 @ 6.1% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 5% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-3 @ 1.5%
Other @ 0.23%
Total : 23.87%
1-2 @ 9.3% (0.0010000000000012 0)
0-1 @ 8.42% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 7.08% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 5.22% (0.0019999999999998 0)
0-3 @ 3.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 3.42%
1-4 @ 2.2% (0.00099999999999989 0)
0-4 @ 1.67% (0.002 0)
2-4 @ 1.44% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 46.18%

How you voted: Qarabag FK vs Lech Poznan

Qarabag FK
56.5%
Draw
23.9%
Lech Poznan
19.6%
46
Head to Head
Jul 5, 2022 7pm
Lech Poznan
1-0
Qarabag FK
Ishak (41')
Karlstrom (48'), Szymczak (87')

Richard (36'), Andrade (48')
rhs 2.0
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