Both sides carry a goal threat, and as domestic champions, are used to taking the initiative. Eagerness to gain a first-leg lead could open up opportunities at either end, but Lech are set to get off to a winning start under their new manager. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 41.86%. A win for Lech Poznan had a probability of 36.18% and a draw had a probability of 22%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (5.19%) and 1-3 (5.14%). The likeliest Lech Poznan win was 2-1 (7.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Lech Poznan would win this match.

Result
Lech Poznan	Draw	Qarabag FK
36.18% ( 0)	21.96% ( 0.01)	41.86% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 69.29% (

-0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.33% (

-0.03)

30.67% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

48.01% (

-0.03)

51.99% (

0.03)

Lech Poznan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.08% (

-0.01)

17.92% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.26% (

-0.02)

48.73% (

0.02)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.42% (

-0.01)

15.58% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.45% (

-0.02)

44.55% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Lech Poznan 36.18%

Qarabag FK 41.86%

Draw 21.96%

Lech Poznan	Draw	Qarabag FK
2-1 @ 7.67% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.8% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.4% ( -0) 2-0 @ 4.13% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.09% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.37% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.89% 4-2 @ 1.76% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.09% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.98% Total : 36.18%	1-1 @ 8.93% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.79% ( 0) 3-3 @ 2.53% ( -0) Other @ 0.58% Total : 21.96%	1-2 @ 8.3% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.19% ( 0) 1-3 @ 5.14% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.83% ( 0) 2-3 @ 4.42% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.99% 1-4 @ 2.39% ( -0) 2-4 @ 2.05% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.39% 3-4 @ 1.18% ( -0) Other @ 3.99% Total : 41.86%