Champions League

Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 2, 2023 at 5pm UK

Baki Olimpiya Stadionu

Qarabag
1 - 1
Rakow

(Rakow Czestochowa win 4-3 on aggregate)

Xhixha (60')
Medina (47'), Medvedev (89'), Jankovic (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Tudor (51')
Carlos (56'), Kovacevic (90+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Qarabag FK and Rakow Czestochowa, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Qarabag FK 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa (Rakow Czestochowa advance 4-3 on aggregate)

Qarabag have lost one competitive home game since Olympique Marseille's 3-0 win in February 2022 — a 2-1 loss against Sumqayit two months ago — underscoring their menace in front of their fans. While they are unlikely to lose on Wednesday, Rakow Czestochowa could escape with a draw, which is the result they need to advance to the third qualifying round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 43.32%. A win for Rakow Czestochowa had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Rakow Czestochowa win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Qarabag FK	Draw	Rakow Czestochowa
43.32%	25.85%	30.83%

Both teams to score 53.34%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.3%

50.7%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.4%

72.6%

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.72%

23.28%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.79%

57.21%

Rakow Czestochowa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.52%

30.48%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.31%

66.69%

Score Analysis

Qarabag FK 43.32%

Rakow Czestochowa 30.83%

Draw 25.84%

Qarabag FK	Draw	Rakow Czestochowa
1-0 @ 10.34% 2-1 @ 8.96% 2-0 @ 7.54% 3-1 @ 4.35% 3-0 @ 3.66% 3-2 @ 2.59% 4-1 @ 1.59% 4-0 @ 1.33% 4-2 @ 0.94% Other @ 2.03% Total : 43.32%	1-1 @ 12.28% 0-0 @ 7.09% 2-2 @ 5.32% 3-3 @ 1.02% Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.84%	0-1 @ 8.43% 1-2 @ 7.3% 0-2 @ 5.01% 1-3 @ 2.89% 2-3 @ 2.11% 0-3 @ 1.98% Other @ 3.11% Total : 30.83%