Champions League | Second Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Aug 2, 2023 at 5pm UK
Baki Olimpiya Stadionu
Qarabag1 - 1Rakow
We said: Qarabag FK 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa (Rakow Czestochowa advance 4-3 on aggregate)
Qarabag have lost one competitive home game since Olympique Marseille's 3-0 win in February 2022 — a 2-1 loss against Sumqayit two months ago — underscoring their menace in front of their fans. While they are unlikely to lose on Wednesday, Rakow Czestochowa could escape with a draw, which is the result they need to advance to the third qualifying round. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 43.32%. A win for Rakow Czestochowa had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Rakow Czestochowa win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
| Result | ||
| Qarabag FK | Draw | Rakow Czestochowa |
| 43.32% | 25.85% | 30.83% |
| Both teams to score 53.34% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
