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Champions League
Qarabag
Champions League | First Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg
Jul 19, 2023 at 5pm UK
Baki Olimpiya Stadionu
Lincoln Red Imps

Qarabag
4 - 0
Lincoln

Zoubir (7'), Mustafazada (45+1'), Xhixha (49'), Jankovic (62')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Sergeant (44'), Gomez (64')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Champions League clash between Qarabag FK and Lincoln Red Imps, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Qarabag FK

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lincoln 1-2 Qarabag
Tuesday, July 11 at 4.30pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Lincoln Red Imps

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Lincoln 1-2 Qarabag
Tuesday, July 11 at 4.30pm in Champions League
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

We said: Qarabag FK 2-0 Lincoln Red Imps (Qarabag win 4-1 on aggregate)

 Despite struggling to break down an obdurate Lincoln side last week, Qarabag possess plenty of attacking talent and have options that can change a game from off the bench. With their lead still a slim one, the hosts will still be motivated to go for goals, before stepping off the gas once the job is all but done. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lincoln Red Imps win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Qarabag FK had a probability of 37.46% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lincoln Red Imps win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.11%) and 0-2 (5.53%). The likeliest Qarabag FK win was 2-1 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Qarabag FK would win this match.

Result
Qarabag FKDrawLincoln Red Imps
37.46% (0.034999999999997 0.03) 23.91% (-0.0019999999999989 -0) 38.62% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04)
Both teams to score 61.81% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.57% (0.011000000000003 0.01)40.43% (-0.012 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
37.19% (0.012 0.01)62.81% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)
Qarabag FK Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.33% (0.021000000000001 0.02)21.67% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
45.19% (0.034000000000006 0.03)54.8% (-0.035000000000004 -0.04)
Lincoln Red Imps Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
78.9% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)21.1% (0.012 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.08% (-0.019999999999996 -0.02)53.92% (0.018999999999998 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Qarabag FK 37.46%
    Lincoln Red Imps 38.62%
    Draw 23.91%
Qarabag FKDrawLincoln Red Imps
2-1 @ 8.32% (0.0039999999999996 0)
1-0 @ 6.99% (0.0010000000000003 0)
2-0 @ 5.35% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-1 @ 4.24% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.3% (0.0029999999999997 0)
3-0 @ 2.73% (0.004 0)
4-1 @ 1.62% (0.004 0)
4-2 @ 1.26% (0.002 0)
4-0 @ 1.04% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 37.46%
1-1 @ 10.87% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
2-2 @ 6.47% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-0 @ 4.57% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.71% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.28%
Total : 23.91%
1-2 @ 8.46% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
0-1 @ 7.11% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.53% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
1-3 @ 4.39% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-3 @ 3.36% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-3 @ 2.87% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
1-4 @ 1.71% (-0.002 -0)
2-4 @ 1.31% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
0-4 @ 1.12% (-0.002 -0)
Other @ 2.77%
Total : 38.62%

How you voted: Qarabag vs Lincoln

Qarabag FK
81.6%
Draw
12.2%
Lincoln Red Imps
6.1%
49
Head to Head
Jul 11, 2023 4.30pm
First Qualifying Round 1st Leg
Lincoln
1-2
Qarabag
Gomez (25')
Yahaya (45+4'), Casciaro (72'), Lopes (78')
Xhixha (58'), Benzia (90+4')
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