Qarabag have never been eliminated from the first round of Champions League qualifying before, and the Azerbaijan Premier League champions should take the first step towards avoiding that fate on Tuesday.
Both sides demonstrated their attacking proficiency throughout their most recent domestic campaigns, but the visitors' European pedigree is far greater, and Qurbanov's side should put one foot in the second round before the return leg in Baku on July 19.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 40.92%. A win for Lincoln Red Imps had a probability of 34.93% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.08%). The likeliest Lincoln Red Imps win was 2-1 (8.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Qarabag FK in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Qarabag FK.
12.05) 
-12.75) 
