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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 33.75% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.16%) and 2-0 (6.03%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 1-2 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
Result | ||
Leeds United | Draw | Middlesbrough |
42.78% ( -0.01) | 23.47% ( 0) | 33.75% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 62.79% ( -0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.13% ( -0.02) | 38.87% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.81% ( -0.03) | 61.18% ( 0.02) |
Leeds United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.44% ( -0.01) | 18.55% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.18% ( -0.02) | 49.81% ( 0.02) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.09% ( -0.01) | 22.9% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.33% ( -0.02) | 56.66% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Leeds United | Draw | Middlesbrough |
2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.03% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.99% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.68% ( -0) 3-0 @ 3.39% 4-1 @ 2.1% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.43% Other @ 3.58% Total : 42.78% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( -0) 0-0 @ 4.25% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0) Other @ 0.31% Total : 23.46% | 1-2 @ 7.78% 0-1 @ 6.26% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.62% ( 0) 1-3 @ 3.82% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.27% 1-4 @ 1.41% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0) Other @ 3.2% Total : 33.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 22 | 15 | 5 | 2 | 32 | 11 | 21 | 48 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 41 | 15 | 26 | 45 |
3 | Burnley | 22 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 28 | 9 | 19 | 44 |
4 | Sunderland | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 43 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 21 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 18 | 7 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 35 |
7 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 22 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 35 |
8 | Watford | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 28 | 2 | 34 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 32 |
10 | Millwall | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 28 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Bristol City | 22 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Norwich CityNorwich | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 26 |
14 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 22 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 25 |
15 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
16 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
17 | Coventry CityCoventry | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 24 |
18 | Preston North EndPreston | 22 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 23 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
20 | Portsmouth | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
21 | Hull City | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 19 |
22 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 18 |
23 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 45 | -23 | 18 |
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