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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 54.9%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Preston North End had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.81%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.21%), while for a Preston North End win it was 0-1 (6.43%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
Result | ||
Middlesbrough | Draw | Preston North End |
54.9% ( -0.63) | 23.6% ( 0.02) | 21.5% ( 0.61) |
Both teams to score 52.08% ( 0.8) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.64% ( 0.63) | 48.36% ( -0.62) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.5% ( 0.57) | 70.5% ( -0.57) |
Middlesbrough Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.51% ( -0) | 17.48% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.02% ( -0) | 47.97% ( 0.01) |
Preston North End Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.11% ( 0.97) | 36.88% ( -0.97) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.33% ( 0.95) | 73.67% ( -0.95) |
Score Analysis |
Middlesbrough | Draw | Preston North End |
1-0 @ 11.24% ( -0.29) 2-0 @ 9.81% ( -0.26) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.7% ( -0.15) 3-1 @ 5.69% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.84% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.07) 4-1 @ 2.48% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.65% Total : 54.9% | 1-1 @ 11.21% 0-0 @ 6.45% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.88% ( 0.13) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.59% | 0-1 @ 6.43% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.59% ( 0.15) 0-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 1.86% ( 0.1) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.72% Total : 21.5% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 53 | 19 | 34 | 59 |
2 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 29 | 18 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 58 |
3 | Burnley | 28 | 15 | 11 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 56 |
4 | Sunderland | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 55 |
5 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 29 | 10 | 14 | 5 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 44 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 29 | 12 | 8 | 9 | 47 | 36 | 11 | 44 |
7 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 29 | 12 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 42 |
8 | Bristol City | 29 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 41 |
9 | Watford | 29 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 40 | 41 | -1 | 41 |
10 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 41 |
11 | Norwich CityNorwich | 29 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 48 | 42 | 6 | 39 |
12 | Coventry CityCoventry | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 38 |
13 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 29 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 38 |
14 | Preston North EndPreston | 29 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 37 |
15 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 36 |
16 | Millwall | 28 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 27 | 26 | 1 | 34 |
17 | Swansea CitySwansea | 29 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 34 |
18 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 29 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 33 | 44 | -11 | 31 |
19 | Hull City | 29 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
20 | Stoke CityStoke | 29 | 6 | 11 | 12 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 29 |
21 | Portsmouth | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 29 |
22 | Derby CountyDerby | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 27 |
23 | Luton TownLuton | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 29 | 48 | -19 | 26 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 29 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 22 |
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