Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 49.79%. A win for Swansea City had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.17%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Swansea City win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.