Championship

Championship | Gameweek 39

Mar 29, 2024 at 3pm UK

St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton
1 - 1
Middlesbrough

Armstrong (12')
Downes (34'), Armstrong (83')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Latte Lath (90')
Ayling (45+2'), Latte Lath (50'), Jones (50'), Azaz (62'), O'Brien (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Southampton and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Southampton

All competitions

Championship

Last Game: Southampton 4-2 Sunderland
Saturday, March 9 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Middlesbrough

All competitions

Last Game: Middlesbrough 0-0 Blackburn
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough

Both sides will be motivated to collect maximum points to boost their promotion hopes, and although Southampton will be regarded as slight favourites, Middlesbrough cannot be taken lightly considering their away form and victory over the Saints in the reverse fixture. Six of the last eight meetings between these two sides have seen both teams score, with Southampton netting in all eight of those matches, and we can see the Saints just edging this closely-fought contest on Good Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 55.31%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.55%) and 1-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
Southampton	Draw	Middlesbrough
55.31% ( 0)	21.23% ( -0)	23.45% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 62.84% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.63% (

-0.01)

35.36% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.61% (

-0.01)

57.39% (

Southampton Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.15% (

-0)

12.84% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.8% (

-0)

39.2% (

-0)

Middlesbrough Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.1% (

-0.01)

27.9% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.48% (

-0.01)

63.51% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Southampton 55.31%

Middlesbrough 23.45%

Draw 21.23%

Southampton	Draw	Middlesbrough
2-1 @ 9.63% 2-0 @ 7.55% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.35% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.59% 3-0 @ 5.16% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.21% ( -0) 4-1 @ 3.38% 4-0 @ 2.65% 4-2 @ 2.16% 5-1 @ 1.39% 5-0 @ 1.09% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.92% Other @ 3.23% Total : 55.31%	1-1 @ 9.39% 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.58% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.79% ( -0) Other @ 0.33% Total : 21.23%	1-2 @ 5.99% 0-1 @ 4.57% 0-2 @ 2.92% 2-3 @ 2.62% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.24% ( -0) Other @ 3.56% Total : 23.45%