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Championship | Gameweek 39
Mar 29, 2024 at 3pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Middlesbrough logo

Southampton
1 - 1
Middlesbrough

Armstrong (12')
Downes (34'), Armstrong (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Latte Lath (90')
Ayling (45+2'), Latte Lath (50'), Jones (50'), Azaz (62'), O'Brien (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Southampton and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Middlesbrough 0-0 Blackburn
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough

Both sides will be motivated to collect maximum points to boost their promotion hopes, and although Southampton will be regarded as slight favourites, Middlesbrough cannot be taken lightly considering their away form and victory over the Saints in the reverse fixture. Six of the last eight meetings between these two sides have seen both teams score, with Southampton netting in all eight of those matches, and we can see the Saints just edging this closely-fought contest on Good Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 55.31%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.55%) and 1-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
SouthamptonDrawMiddlesbrough
55.31% (0.0039999999999978 0) 21.23% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 23.45% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 62.84% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.63% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)35.36% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.61% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)57.39% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.15% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)12.84% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.8% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)39.2% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.1% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)27.9% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.48% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)63.51% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 55.31%
    Middlesbrough 23.45%
    Draw 21.23%
SouthamptonDrawMiddlesbrough
2-1 @ 9.63%
2-0 @ 7.55% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-0 @ 7.35% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 6.59%
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 4.21% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 3.38%
4-0 @ 2.65%
4-2 @ 2.16%
5-1 @ 1.39%
5-0 @ 1.09% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-3 @ 0.92%
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 55.31%
1-1 @ 9.39%
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 3.58% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-3 @ 1.79% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 21.23%
1-2 @ 5.99%
0-1 @ 4.57%
0-2 @ 2.92%
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 2.55% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-3 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 23.45%

How you voted: Southampton vs Middlesbrough

Southampton
74.1%
Draw
17.2%
Middlesbrough
8.6%
58
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 8
Middlesbrough
2-1
Southampton
McGree (44'), Howson (66' pen.)
Jones (53'), Hackney (58'), Smith (90+6')
Armstrong (17')
Martin (54')
May 13, 2017 3pm
Dec 11, 2016 2.15pm
Southampton
1-0
Middlesbrough
Boufal (53')
Tadic (22'), Boufal (45'), Fonte (55'), Romeu (58')

Barragan (17'), Forshaw (52'), Clayton (80')
Apr 21, 2012 3pm
Oct 29, 2011 3pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland149322391430
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd149321871128
3Leeds UnitedLeeds147522291326
4Burnley146621761124
5West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom14572148622
6Millwall146441712522
7Watford147162222022
8Middlesbrough146351816221
9Swansea CitySwansea14545119219
10Blackburn RoversBlackburn145451616019
11Bristol City144731819-119
12Norwich CityNorwich144642320318
13Derby CountyDerby145361818018
14Stoke CityStoke145361718-118
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds145361724-718
16Oxford UnitedOxford Utd144551717017
17Coventry CityCoventry144371819-115
18Hull City143651518-315
19Luton TownLuton144371621-515
20Preston North EndPreston143651420-615
21Cardiff CityCardiff144371320-715
22Plymouth ArgylePlymouth144371425-1115
23Queens Park RangersQPR141761223-1110
24Portsmouth141671327-149


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