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Championship | Gameweek 39
Mar 29, 2024 at 3pm UK
St. Mary's Stadium
Middlesbrough logo

Southampton
1 - 1
Middlesbrough

Armstrong (12')
Downes (34'), Armstrong (83')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Latte Lath (90')
Ayling (45+2'), Latte Lath (50'), Jones (50'), Azaz (62'), O'Brien (70')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Championship clash between Southampton and Middlesbrough, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Middlesbrough 0-0 Blackburn
Saturday, March 16 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Southampton 2-1 Middlesbrough

Both sides will be motivated to collect maximum points to boost their promotion hopes, and although Southampton will be regarded as slight favourites, Middlesbrough cannot be taken lightly considering their away form and victory over the Saints in the reverse fixture. Six of the last eight meetings between these two sides have seen both teams score, with Southampton netting in all eight of those matches, and we can see the Saints just edging this closely-fought contest on Good Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 55.31%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.55%) and 1-0 (7.35%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 1-2 (5.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood.

Result
SouthamptonDrawMiddlesbrough
55.31% (0.0039999999999978 0) 21.23% (-0.0010000000000012 -0) 23.45% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Both teams to score 62.84% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.63% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)35.36% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.61% (-0.007000000000005 -0.01)57.39% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Southampton Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.15% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)12.84% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
60.8% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)39.2% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Middlesbrough Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.1% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)27.9% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.48% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)63.51% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Southampton 55.31%
    Middlesbrough 23.45%
    Draw 21.23%
SouthamptonDrawMiddlesbrough
2-1 @ 9.63%
2-0 @ 7.55% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-0 @ 7.35% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-1 @ 6.59%
3-0 @ 5.16% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 4.21% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-1 @ 3.38%
4-0 @ 2.65%
4-2 @ 2.16%
5-1 @ 1.39%
5-0 @ 1.09% (0.0010000000000001 0)
4-3 @ 0.92%
Other @ 3.23%
Total : 55.31%
1-1 @ 9.39%
2-2 @ 6.15% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-0 @ 3.58% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-3 @ 1.79% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Other @ 0.33%
Total : 21.23%
1-2 @ 5.99%
0-1 @ 4.57%
0-2 @ 2.92%
2-3 @ 2.62% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
1-3 @ 2.55% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
0-3 @ 1.24% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 3.56%
Total : 23.45%

How you voted: Southampton vs Middlesbrough

Southampton
74.1%
Draw
17.2%
Middlesbrough
8.6%
58
Head to Head
Sep 23, 2023 3pm
Gameweek 8
Middlesbrough
2-1
Southampton
McGree (44'), Howson (66' pen.)
Jones (53'), Hackney (58'), Smith (90+6')
Armstrong (17')
Martin (54')
May 13, 2017 3pm
Dec 11, 2016 2.15pm
Southampton
1-0
Middlesbrough
Boufal (53')
Tadic (22'), Boufal (45'), Fonte (55'), Romeu (58')

Barragan (17'), Forshaw (52'), Clayton (80')
Apr 21, 2012 3pm
Oct 29, 2011 3pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland1695226121432
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd1610422191232
3Burnley168621961330
4Leeds UnitedLeeds158522491529
5Middlesbrough1683529191027
6West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom166821811726
7Watford168262524126
8Millwall166641914524
9Blackburn RoversBlackburn156451917222
10Bristol City165742020022
11Derby CountyDerby165562020020
12Stoke CityStoke165561920-120
13Norwich CityNorwich164752524119
14Swansea CitySwansea155461110119
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds165471826-819
16Luton TownLuton165381826-818
17Coventry CityCoventry164572223-117
18Oxford UnitedOxford Utd164571924-517
19Plymouth ArgylePlymouth164571728-1117
20Preston North EndPreston163761624-816
21Cardiff CityCardiff164481524-916
22Hull City163671621-515
23Portsmouth152671628-1212
24Queens Park RangersQPR161871326-1311


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