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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 43.22%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 31.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.34%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.
Result | ||
Sunderland | Draw | Derby County |
43.22% ( 0) | 25.52% ( -0.01) | 31.26% |
Both teams to score 54.59% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.83% ( 0.02) | 49.16% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.76% ( 0.02) | 71.23% ( -0.02) |
Sunderland Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.33% ( 0.01) | 22.67% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.69% ( 0.02) | 56.31% ( -0.02) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.59% ( 0.01) | 29.41% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.59% ( 0.01) | 65.4% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Sunderland | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 9.89% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.34% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.45% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.63% 3-2 @ 2.72% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.65% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0) Other @ 2.18% Total : 43.22% | 1-1 @ 12.1% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.67% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.5% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.51% | 0-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.41% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.02% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.24% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.04% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 2.47% Total : 31.26% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 21 | 14 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 11 | 19 | 45 |
2 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 42 |
3 | Burnley | 21 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 8 | 18 | 41 |
4 | Sunderland | 21 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 32 | 17 | 15 | 40 |
5 | Blackburn RoversBlackburn | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 8 | 37 |
6 | Middlesbrough | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 10 | 34 |
7 | Watford | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 34 |
8 | West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom | 21 | 7 | 11 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 32 |
9 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 32 |
10 | Bristol City | 21 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 27 |
11 | Swansea CitySwansea | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 27 |
12 | Norwich CityNorwich | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 26 |
13 | Millwall | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 25 |
14 | Luton TownLuton | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 25 |
15 | Derby CountyDerby | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 24 |
16 | Coventry CityCoventry | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 28 | 34 | -6 | 24 |
17 | Preston North EndPreston | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 23 |
18 | Queens Park RangersQPR | 21 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 22 |
19 | Stoke CityStoke | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 22 |
20 | Portsmouth | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 35 | -10 | 20 |
21 | Hull City | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 31 | -10 | 19 |
22 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 18 |
23 | Cardiff CityCardiff | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 18 |
24 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 42 | -23 | 17 |
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