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Championship | Gameweek 5
Sep 14, 2024 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cardiff City logo

Derby
1 - 0
Cardiff

Goudmijn (28')
Adams (20'), Mendez-Laing (69')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Bagan (56'), Fish (61'), Ralls (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Championship clash between Derby County and Cardiff City, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Derby County 2-1 Cardiff City

With Cardiff's only point having come on their travels, they will feel that they have the capabilities of ending their dismal run here. However, Derby appear to be growing in confidence and that could prove decisive if the game is close at the business end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 47.93%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 26.06% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (8.96%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCardiff City
47.93% (-0.036000000000001 -0.04) 26.01% (0.013999999999999 0.01) 26.06% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Both teams to score 49.77% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.12% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)53.88% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.66% (-0.023999999999997 -0.02)75.34% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.51% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)22.49% (0.030999999999999 0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.95% (-0.043999999999997 -0.04)56.05% (0.046999999999997 0.05)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.21% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)35.79% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.44% (0.004999999999999 0)72.57% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 47.93%
    Cardiff City 26.07%
    Draw 26.01%
Derby CountyDrawCardiff City
1-0 @ 12.01% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-1 @ 9.21% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.96% (-0.004999999999999 -0)
3-1 @ 4.58% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
3-0 @ 4.46% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 1.71% (-0.004 -0)
4-0 @ 1.66% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.99%
Total : 47.93%
1-1 @ 12.34% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.05% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
2-2 @ 4.73% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 26.01%
0-1 @ 8.27% (0.011000000000001 0.01)
1-2 @ 6.34% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 4.25% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.17% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.62%
0-3 @ 1.46% (0.002 0)
Other @ 1.96%
Total : 26.07%

How you voted: Derby vs Cardiff

Derby County
71.4%
Draw
12.7%
Cardiff City
15.9%
63
Head to Head
May 7, 2022 12.30pm
Gameweek 46
Derby
0-1
Cardiff

Thompson (73')
Hugill (55')
Ng (69'), Harris (81')
Mar 1, 2022 7.45pm
Gameweek 23
Cardiff
1-0
Derby
Ikpeazu (85')
Davies (26'), Doughty (90+2')

Buchanan (52'), Davies (62'), Bird (80'), Ebosele (90+3')
Mar 2, 2021 7pm
Gameweek 34
Cardiff
4-0
Derby
Bacuna (22', 56'), Moore (48'), Vaulks (90+3')
Oct 28, 2020 7.45pm
Gameweek 8
Derby
1-1
Cardiff
Waghorn (24')
Jozwiak (82'), Shinnie (86'), te Wierik (90')
Moore (77')
Morrison (82'), Ojo (90+1'), Bacuna (90+3')
Jul 14, 2020 7.45pm
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Sunderland96121881019
2Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd9630123919
3Burnley95311441018
4West Bromwich AlbionWest Brom9522126617
5Leeds UnitedLeeds9441157816
6Watford95131414016
7Norwich CityNorwich94321610615
8Blackburn RoversBlackburn94321511415
9Middlesbrough9423107314
10Oxford UnitedOxford Utd93331311212
11Swansea CitySwansea933386212
12Derby CountyDerby94051212012
13Hull City93331213-112
14Plymouth ArgylePlymouth93241013-311
15Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds93241115-411
16Bristol City92521014-411
17Stoke CityStoke93151012-210
18Millwall9234121119
19Preston North EndPreston9234712-59
20Coventry CityCoventry92251013-38
21Luton TownLuton9225815-78
22Queens Park RangersQPR9144916-77
23Portsmouth9054920-115
24Cardiff CityCardiff9126418-145


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