Copa del Rey | Round of 16

Jan 18, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Civitas Metropolitano

Atletico
4 - 2
Real Madrid

Lino (39'), Morata (57'), Griezmann (100'), Riquelme (119')
Morata (58'), Hermoso (68'), De Paul (78'), Koke (80'), Simeone (83'), Griezmann (101'), Witsel (113')

FT
(aet)

Oblak (45+1' og.), Joselu (82')
Junior (45'), Camavinga (56'), Diaz (68'), Tchouameni (85'), Bellingham (87'), Carvajal (89')

Carlo Ancelotti says Real Madrid "had a disadvantage" against Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti says that his side "had a disadvantage" against Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey.

Jan 19, 17:19

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Real Madrid 5-3 Atletico
Wednesday, January 10 at 7pm in Supercopa de Espana

Goals
for

Top scorers

Real Madrid

All competitions

Copa del Rey

Last Game: Real Madrid 4-1 Barcelona
Sunday, January 14 at 7pm in Supercopa de Espana

Goals
for

Top scorers

We say: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Madrid

While Atletico's overall form recently is nothing to write home about, Los Rojiblancos are on a remarkable 25-game unbeaten run at the Metropolitano Stadium - winning 11 of their last 12 at a ground where they have not lost in over a year. With Simeone's side also enjoying a longer recuperation period from their Middle Eastern endeavours, a jet-lagged Real will have their work cut out this time around and could very well see their Copa del Rey defence crash and burn against their vengeful rivals. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 38.19%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 36.69% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.05%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
36.69% ( 0.28)	25.12% ( 0.24)	38.19% ( -0.52)

Both teams to score 57.32% (

-0.83)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.78% (

-1.08)

46.21% (

1.08)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.49% (

-1.03)

68.51% (

1.03)

Atletico Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.31% (

-0.34)

24.69% (

0.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.77% (

-0.48)

59.23% (

0.48)

Real Madrid Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.12% (

-0.75)

23.88% (

0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.91% (

-1.09)

58.08% (

1.09)

Score Analysis

Atletico Madrid 36.69%

Real Madrid 38.19%

Draw 25.12%

Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
2-1 @ 8.26% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 8.25% ( 0.29) 2-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.86% Total : 36.69%	1-1 @ 11.81% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.27) 3-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.18% Total : 25.12%	1-2 @ 8.46% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 8.44% ( 0.2) 0-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.12) 1-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.05) 2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.01% Total : 38.19%