Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 44.8%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 30.35% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.37%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (7.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.71%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
Result | ||
Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
44.8% ( 0.08) | 24.84% ( 0.44) | 30.35% ( -0.51) |
Both teams to score 56.39% ( -1.77) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.39% ( -2.19) | 46.61% ( 2.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.12% ( -2.09) | 68.88% ( 2.09) |
Girona Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.14% ( -0.87) | 20.86% ( 0.87) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.45% ( -1.38) | 53.55% ( 1.38) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.26% ( -1.43) | 28.74% ( 1.44) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.42% ( -1.82) | 64.58% ( 1.82) |
Score Analysis |
Girona | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
1-0 @ 9.4% ( 0.61) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0) 2-0 @ 7.37% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.1) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.66% Total : 44.8% | 1-1 @ 11.71% ( 0.31) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.54) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.84% | 0-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 4.66% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( -0.17) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.2) 0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.09) Other @ 2.62% Total : 30.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barcelona | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 11 | 29 | 33 |
2 | Real Madrid | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 24 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 18 | 7 | 11 | 23 |
4 | Villarreal | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 21 |
5 | Osasuna | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 21 |
6 | Athletic Bilbao | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 19 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 19 |
8 | Mallorca | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 18 |
9 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 16 |
10 | Celta Vigo | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 16 |
11 | Real Sociedad | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 15 |
12 | GironaGirona | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
13 | Sevilla | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 15 |
14 | AlavesAlaves | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
15 | Leganes | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 11 |
16 | Getafe | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 10 |
17 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 10 |
18 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 |
19 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 8 |
20 | Valencia | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 7 |
> La Liga Full Table |