Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 28, 2024 at 11pm UK

Arena MRV

Atletico Mineiro
4 - 0
Caracas

Pedrinho (28', 61'), Santana (40'), Hulk (90+3')
Zaracho (24'), Eduardo Amaral Pereira de Castro (44'), Arana (90'), Hulk (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Farinez Aray (10')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Copa Libertadores clash between Atletico Mineiro and Caracas, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Sport 1-0 Atletico Mineiro
Thursday, May 23 at 12am in Copa do Brasil

Goals
for

Top scorers

Caracas

All competitions

Last Game: Rosario 4-1 Caracas
Thursday, May 16 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

We said: Atletico Mineiro 3-0 Caracas

The shackles could come off Caracas knowing that nothing they can do on Tuesday will affect their Copa Libertadores fate, and their hosts do not arrive into the final matchweek with the wind in their sails. However, facing the leakiest defence in the competition is surely a recipe for success for the Brazilian giants, who should top the group and return to victorious ways in ruthless fashion. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 78.52%. A draw had a probability of 14.2% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 7.24%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.35%) and 1-0 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.77%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (2.67%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.

Result
Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Caracas
78.52% ( -0.04)	14.24% ( 0.02)	7.24% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 43.5% (

0.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.5% (

0.01)

38.49% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.21% (

0.01)

60.79% (

-0.01)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

92.08% (

-0.01)

7.91% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

72.01% (

-0.02)

27.99% (

0.02)

Caracas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

47.24% (

0.07)

52.76% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

13.5% (

0.04)

86.49% (

-0.04)

Score Analysis

Atletico Mineiro 78.51%

Caracas 7.24%

Draw 14.24%

Atletico Mineiro	Draw	Caracas
2-0 @ 13.43% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 11.35% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 10.59% 2-1 @ 8.59% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 7.26% ( 0) 4-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.61% ( 0) 5-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 2.34% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.55% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.47% ( 0) 6-1 @ 0.99% Other @ 3.16% Total : 78.51%	1-1 @ 6.77% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.18% ( -0) 2-2 @ 2.75% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.55% Total : 14.24%	0-1 @ 2.67% ( 0) 1-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 7.24%