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Copa Libertadores | Third Round
Apr 15, 2021 at 1.30am UK
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Club Libertad

Atletico Nacional
4 - 1
Libertad

Barrera (16'), Perlaza (51'), Alvez (58'), Duque (74')
Andrade (28'), Quintana (77')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Cesar Enciso (2')
Barboza (84'), Bocanegra (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Atletico Nacional and Club Libertad, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Nacional win with a probability of 44.93%. A win for Club Libertad had a probability of 30.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.95%) and 2-0 (7.18%). The likeliest Club Libertad win was 1-2 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Nacional would win this match.

Result
Atletico NacionalDrawClub Libertad
44.93%24.49%30.58%
Both teams to score 57.72%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.08%44.92%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.72%67.27%
Atletico Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.89%20.11%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.63%52.36%
Club Libertad Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.25%27.74%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.68%63.31%
Score Analysis
    Atletico Nacional 44.93%
    Club Libertad 30.58%
    Draw 24.48%
Atletico NacionalDrawClub Libertad
2-1 @ 9.2%
1-0 @ 8.95%
2-0 @ 7.18%
3-1 @ 4.92%
3-0 @ 3.84%
3-2 @ 3.15%
4-1 @ 1.97%
4-0 @ 1.54%
4-2 @ 1.27%
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 44.93%
1-1 @ 11.47%
2-2 @ 5.9%
0-0 @ 5.58%
3-3 @ 1.35%
Other @ 0.19%
Total : 24.48%
1-2 @ 7.36%
0-1 @ 7.15%
0-2 @ 4.59%
1-3 @ 3.14%
2-3 @ 2.52%
0-3 @ 1.96%
1-4 @ 1.01%
Other @ 2.85%
Total : 30.58%

How you voted: Atletico Nacional vs Libertad

Atletico Nacional
62.5%
Draw
12.5%
Club Libertad
25.0%
8
Head to Head
Apr 8, 2021 1.30am
Third Round
Libertad
1-0
Atletico Nacional
Barboza (45'), Baez (62')
Banguero (64')
> Preview
Mar 1, 2019 12.30am
Third Stage
Atletico Nacional
1-0
Libertad
 Libertad win 5-4 on penalties
Lucumi (34')
Lucumi (44'), Palacios (62'), Hernandez (86')

Rivero (13'), Bareiro (44'), Cardozo (56'), Cardozo (85'), Caceres (87')
Feb 22, 2019 12.30am
Third Stage
Libertad
1-0
Atletico Nacional
Cardozo (55')
Cougo (42'), Aquino (51'), Canale (78')

Hernandez (5'), Palacios (36'), Gomez (54')
rhs 2.0
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