We said: Independiente del Valle 1-0 Liverpool
A one-goal triumph may not be enough to vault them into second place, but we trust Independiente del Valle to get the job done because they are used to playing in these win-or-go-home scenarios.
Needing to score a plethora of goals could leave Liverpool exposed in transition, something the Ecuadorians will be able to use to their advantage on Thursday.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 69.48%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Liverpool had a probability of 12.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 1-0 (9.17%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.26%), while for a Liverpool win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
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