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Ceara
Copa Sudamericana | Quarter-Finals | 2nd Leg
Aug 10, 2022 at 11.15pm UK
Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo
Sao Paulo

Ceara
2 - 1
Sao Paulo

Mendoza (44'), Castilho (63')
Richardson (23'), Luis (77'), Vinicius (87')
FT
(aet)
Vinicius (54')
Galoppo (17'), Vinicius (26'), Miranda (86'), Calleri (90+1')
Sao Paulo win 4-3 on penalties

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Ceara and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ceara

Last Six:
Last Game: Botafogo 1-1 Ceara
Saturday, August 6 at 8.30pm in Brasileiro

Sao Paulo

Last Six:
Last Game: Sao Paulo 0-2 Flamengo
Sunday, August 7 at 12.30am in Brasileiro

We say: Ceara 1-1 Sao Paulo

 Ceara have proven tough to beat in recent times, but we think that Sao Paulo can avoid defeat, too, meaning they would progress to the semi-finals. It is tough to envisage a particularly open game with the onus on the hosts to attack, especially with this not being their usual gameplan. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ceara win with a probability of 43.2%. A draw had a probability of 31% and a win for Sao Paulo had a probability of 25.81%.

The most likely scoreline for a Ceara win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.26%) and 2-1 (7.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.6%), while for a Sao Paulo win it was 0-1 (11.65%).

Result
CearaDrawSao Paulo
43.2% (0.058 0.06) 30.98% (0.0060000000000002 0.01) 25.81% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)
Both teams to score 37.14% (-0.047999999999995 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
30.27% (-0.038999999999998 -0.04)69.73% (0.038000000000011 0.04)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
12.94% (-0.025 -0.03)87.06% (0.024000000000001 0.02)
Ceara Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.57% (0.012999999999991 0.01)32.43% (-0.014000000000003 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.05% (0.015999999999998 0.02)68.95% (-0.016999999999996 -0.02)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
54.96% (-0.082999999999998 -0.08)45.04% (0.082000000000001 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
19.03% (-0.067 -0.07)80.97% (0.066000000000003 0.07)
Score Analysis
    Ceara 43.2%
    Sao Paulo 25.81%
    Draw 30.97%
CearaDrawSao Paulo
1-0 @ 16.44% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-0 @ 9.26% (0.02 0.02)
2-1 @ 7.39% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-0 @ 3.48% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.77% (0.0010000000000003 0)
3-2 @ 1.11% (-0.002 -0)
4-0 @ 0.98% (0.003 0)
Other @ 1.77%
Total : 43.2%
0-0 @ 14.6% (0.02 0.02)
1-1 @ 13.11% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 2.95% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 30.97%
0-1 @ 11.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-2 @ 5.23% (-0.015 -0.01)
0-2 @ 4.65% (-0.015 -0.01)
1-3 @ 1.39% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.24% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 1.66%
Total : 25.81%

How you voted: Ceara vs Sao Paulo

Ceara
25.7%
Draw
34.3%
Sao Paulo
40.0%
35
Head to Head
Aug 3, 2022 11.15pm
Sao Paulo
1-0
Ceara
Nikao (70')
Welington (42'), Maia (90+5')

Paraiba (14'), Luis (81')
May 28, 2022 11pm
Sao Paulo
2-2
Ceara
Calleri (8'), Nestor (42')
Anderson (34'), Rafinha (64'), Gomes (66')
Gomes (90')
Cleber (37'), Mendoza (71')
Ribeiro (16'), Richardson (20'), Junior (44'), Mendoza (66')
Oct 14, 2021 11pm
Sao Paulo
1-1
Ceara
Calleri (52')
Miranda (38'), Manuel Orejuela (48'), Calleri (61')
Fabinho (23')
Fabinho (36'), Richard (45+3'), Oliveira (86')
Jun 28, 2021 12.30am
Ceara
1-1
Sao Paulo
Jorginho (23')
Jorginho (26'), Saulo (45+1'), Lacerda (68'), Jael (81')
Dias (53' og.)
Reinaldo (26'), Hernanes (28'), Eder (53'), Alves (76'), Benitez (77'), Juan (90+1')
Feb 11, 2021 12am
Sao Paulo
1-1
Ceara
Luciano (90+7')
Pablo (23'), Gomes (49'), Juanfran (67'), Toro (90+10')
Chu (90+3')
Xavier (21'), Charles (63'), Tiago (71'), Ferreira (75'), Sobral (82')
rhs 2.0
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