Considering the game means very little to Penarol, and Defensa y Justicia won the reverse fixture by a three-goal margin, we expect the visitors to emerge as comfortable victors on Tuesday evening.
Defensa have looked very solid in recent weeks, losing just one of their last 11 games in all competitions, and they have displayed they have what it takes to book their place in the next round of the Copa Sudamericana.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 42.36%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 29.34% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
