Corinthians are targeting a return to the Copa Libertadores after a year-long absence, and they can strengthen their position in the top six of the Brazilian Serie A when they travel to Sport Recife on Saturday evening.
Sport Recife are in the midst of a cutthroat relegation battle and face a desperate challenge to avoid dropping into Serie B before the season concludes later this year.
Match preview
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Dealing with the threat of relegation has proved troublesome for Recife all season and with just five victories to their name, a dramatic upturn in form is needed if the one-time Brazilian champions are to escape the drop.
One victory from their first 11 matches immediately left the club from Western Brazil scratching around at the bottom of the table, with the win coming against the side at the time second-bottom of Serie A, Gremio.
Recife have since taken the mantle of second-bottom themselves and despite a relative upturn in form throughout the summer period, they still occupy one of the four relegation spots.
A five-match unbeaten run between mid-July and early August, including two wins from three during that period, offered Recife a glimmer of hope, but a seven-game winless run halted their resurgence.
Cesar Lucena's side had gone those same seven matches without a goal, before picking up their first three points in over a month against fellow strugglers Gremio during last week's must-win fixture, before backing up their good run with a 3-1 victory over Juventude in midweek.
It has not been a stellar campaign to date for Recife, yet they boast a rather surprisingly impressive defensive record and have registered nine clean sheets since the season began.
Only two sides in the division have conceded fewer goals than the Lions, yet it has predictably been their poor efforts in front of goal that has cost them this year.
Their petty 10 goals scored means Recife comfortably hold the worst attack in the division and have netted eight goals fewer than bottom-placed Chapecoense.
Another side who may have been hoping for better attacking returns this year have been Corinthians, whose mediocre tally of 24 goals scored has prevented them from challenging higher up the table.
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Corinthians have only beaten a side by more than a one-goal margin once this season and a joint-second division high 11 draws have meant they enter the final stage of the campaign still chasing a Libertadores spot, instead of competing for their seventh Brazilian title.
A slow start is to blame for their relatively underwhelming season, that saw Corinthians lose five of their first 15 matches, before going unbeaten in their next nine and most recently picking up three points in their 3-1 victory over Bahia.
Having missed out on qualification for the Libertadores after a 12th-placed finish last season, Corinthians were forced to settle for a Copa Sudamericana group stage spot, but it proved unsuccessful as they failed to qualify for the knockouts.
Their elimination may just have proved beneficial for Corinthians as it has allowed them to focus on their league form and put them back into contention to qualify for South America's premier competition.
Currently occupying the final Libertadores spot in the table, a victory against desperate Recife will strengthen their hopes of making a return and they will be looking to extend an impressive run of form against the Lions.
Losing only one of their previous five head to heads, yet another victory for Sylvinho's side seems a likely scenario when the pair meet at the Arena Pernambuco on Saturday.
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Team News
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It is going to be a desperate couple of weeks for Recife if they are to survive the drop and they will have to do it without midfielder Joao Igor, who looks set to miss the remainder of the campaign.
The 25-year-old suffered a season-ending cruciate ligament injury, meaning the Lions will be without his services until 2022.
Whilst not as serious as his teammate's injury, Neilton is another Recife player who has spent a large chunk of time in the treatment room, missing every Recife match since mid-July.
A return looks imminent for the winger, yet he is unlikely to be rushed back for the visit of Corinthians this weekend.
Corinthians have their own ambitions during the season run-in, albeit at the opposite end of the table to their opponents, and Sylvinho will have near enough a full squad of players to pick from.
Like his compatriot Joao Igor, Ruan Oliveira will miss the rest of the season due to a cruciate ligament injury he picked up after making just four Serie A appearances this year.
Other than that, Corinthians will be with their full cohort on Saturday and will likely turn to star striker Jo, who has netted six times in 19 appearances this season.
Their attacking returns could also be boosted by the services of former Chelsea and Arsenal winger Willian, who has impressed since leaving the Premier League in the summer.
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Ewerthon, Thyere, Sabino, Sander; Mark, Welison; Everaldo, Hernanes, Gustavo, Mikael
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Fagner, Victor, Gil, Piton; Cantillo, dos Santos, Giuliano, Renato Augusto, Willian; Jo
We say: Sport Recife 0-1 Corinthians
Given their defensive record, it is somewhat of a surprise to see Recife so far down in the league table, yet an inability to find goals in crucial matches has proved costly for the Lions.
It could turn out to be another frustrating night in front of goal when Corinthians come to visit on Saturday and an away win seems the most likely outcome in this one.
Top tip
Amos Murphy
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 40.27%. A win for Sport Recife had a probability of 30.07% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.08%) and 1-2 (7.73%). The likeliest Sport Recife win was 1-0 (11.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.
