UEFA Nations League

[monks data]

Nations League | League A

Oct 12, 2024 at 5pm UK

Stadion Maksimir

Croatia
vs.
Scotland

Preview

Data Analysis

Football

Preview: Croatia vs. Scotland - prediction, team news, lineups

By Jonathan O'Shea

Published: October 10 2024 | 14:07

Last updated: October 10 2024 | 15:01

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Nations League clash between Croatia and Scotland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Seeking an end to their long winless streak, Scotland face a tough trip to Zagreb on Saturday, when they tackle UEFA Nations League rivals Croatia.

Steve Clarke's side have lost both of their League A Group 1 matches so far, while their hosts have three points on the board and are still eyeing a place in the knockout phase.

Match preview

Croatia's Luka Modric in action on June 24, 2024 [IMAGO] © Imago

Last month, Croatia began their quest to go one step further in this season's Nations League than in 2023 - when they were beaten by Spain in the final - but they kicked off with a 2-1 defeat in Portugal.

Having previously exited Euro 2024 at the group stage, the Vatreni were keen to prove they are still a force to be reckoned with, and a subsequent victory over Poland ended their wait for a win.

Captain Luka Modric scored a stunning free kick to separate the sides in Osijek, moving his team up to second place in the Group 1 standings.

While long-serving coach Zlatko Dalic is faced with the task of phasing in fresh faces and replacing fading veterans, his team are still hoping to secure some elusive silverware - and the Nations League surely represents their best shot.

Even second place in each League A group will secure a spot in the quarter-finals, so Croatia merely need to keep their noses in front of Poland and Scotland between now and November.

Past results certainly suggest they can do so: in addition to winning six of their last eight Nations League matches, they have also won their last three home games across all competitions - each without conceding a goal.

Scott McTominay celebrates scoring for Scotland in September 2024 © Imago

Saturday's clash at Stadion Maksimir will mark the first meeting between Croatia and Scotland since Euro 2020, when the Vatreni won 3-1 in Glasgow to eliminate their hosts from the tournament.

That was a particularly painful defeat to swallow at Hampden Park, but the Scots are one of very few teams to have left Croatia unscathed on more than one occasion: they emerged unbeaten from two previous visits, drawing 1-1 in October 2000 and winning 1-0 in June 2013.

Current coach Steve Clarke would gladly accept a repeat of either result this weekend, as his ailing side are winless in eight competitive matches - the longest streak in Scottish football history - and have won just one of their last 14 outings overall, against Gibraltar in a friendly.

Since the Scots were promoted to the Nations League's top tier last time around, they have endured a significant period of struggle, tamely exiting Euro 2024 before losing twice in September.

Both defeats promised better, but after fighting back to 2-2 in their opener against Poland they conceded a penalty in the seventh minute of second-half stoppage time; then, a late strike from international football's goalscorer supreme denied them a point in Portugal.

After in-form midfielder Scott McTominay had put Clarke's men in front at Estadio da Luz, Cristiano Ronaldo's 88th-minute winner sealed the Selecao's comeback and left Scotland rock bottom of the table.

As third-placed teams will have to negotiate a relegation playoff, while finishing last results in automatic relegation, they are now scraping against the odds to survive in League A: after a tricky trip to Zagreb, the Scots must meet Portugal at Hampden three days later.

Croatia Nations League form:

Croatia form (all competitions):

Scotland Nations League form:

Scotland form (all competitions):

Team News

Croatia head coach Zlatko Dalic on June 24, 2024 (IMAGO) © Imago

Already without Domagoj Vida and midfield mainstay Marcelo Brozovic - both of whom retired from international duty after the Euros - Croatia were missing defensive duo Josip Stanisic and Martin Erlic last month, but the latter is now back in action and could start against Scotland.

In addition to Stanisic, Marin Pongracic and Lovro Majer are unavailable due to injury, significantly reducing the number of options open to Zlatko Dalic.

While 98-cap striker Andrej Kramaric will hope to inch closer to Croatia's 100 club this weekend, Manchester City star Mateo Kovacic will make his 107th appearance, moving ahead of Ivan Rakitic into outright fifth in the all-time list. Luka Modric (180 caps) and Ivan Perisic (136) will both feature too.

Eintracht Frankfurt striker Igor Matanovic made his senior debut in September and could again start up front for the hosts, while their visitors' attack has been bolstered by the return of Che Adams, who has settled in well since joining Torino.

The Scots' main threat could come from just behind the frontman, though, as another Serie A new boy, Scott McTominay, has scored 11 goals for his country - each one coming in competitive fixtures.

Steve Clarke named the same starting lineup for both games last month, but changes must be made on Saturday: with Angus Gunn dropping out of the squad through injury, 41-year-old Craig Gordon - already Scotland's oldest international - is set to start in goal.

Aberdeen left-back Jack MacKenzie has been drafted in after Celtic's Greg Taylor withdrew, and Hearts striker Lawrence Shankland misses out because of a hamstring problem, being replaced by MacKenzie's clubmate Kevin Nisbet.

Furthermore, Premier League quartet John McGinn, Aaron Hickey, Nathan Patterson and Kieran Tierney are also unavailable.

Croatia possible starting lineup:
Livakovic; Erlic, Sutalo, Gvardiol; Pjaca, Kovacic, Modric, Baturina, Sosa; Matanovic, Kramaric

Scotland possible starting lineup:
Gordon; Ralston, Hanley, Souttar, Robertson; McClean, Gilmour; Doak, McTominay, Christie; Adams

SM words green background

We say: Croatia 2-0 Scotland

Weighed down by declining confidence and numerous injuries, Scotland have been a shadow of their former selves in recent months, meaning Croatia should continue a fine home record.

Besides several other issues, the Scots simply cannot keep the back door shut, so there can only be one outcome on Saturday evening.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.