Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 55.91%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 22.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (5.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for De Graafschap in this match.

Result
De Graafschap	Draw	Jong AZ
55.91% ( -0.09)	21.59% ( 0.01)	22.5% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 60.24% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.79% (

0.02)

38.21% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.52% (

0.02)

60.48% (

-0.03)

De Graafschap Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.39% (

-0.02)

13.6% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.26% (

-0.04)

40.74% (

0.04)

Jong AZ Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.73% (

0.08)

30.27% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.55% (

0.09)

66.45% (

-0.09)

Score Analysis

De Graafschap 55.91%

Jong AZ 22.5%

Draw 21.59%

De Graafschap	Draw	Jong AZ
2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.89% ( 0) 4-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.94% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.3% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 3.58% Total : 55.91%	1-1 @ 9.82% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.12% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0) Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.59%	1-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.92% ( 0) 0-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.94% Total : 22.5%