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Bolton logo
EFL Trophy | Third Round
Dec 13, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
University of Bolton Stadium

Bolton
4 - 0
Man Utd U21s

Afolayan (68'), Morley (76'), Bakayoko (90+3'), Bradley (90+5')
Iredale (81')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Murray (11'), Bernard (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Trophy clash between Bolton Wanderers and Manchester United Under-21s, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Shrewsbury 3-2 Bolton
Saturday, December 10 at 12.30pm in League One

We said: Bolton Wanderers 2-1 Manchester United Under-21s

We are expecting this to be a very competitive match, and both sides will fancy their chances of causing issues in the final third of the field. Bolton will have more experience, though, and we just have a feeling that the League One side will navigate their way into the next round of the competition courtesy of a narrow win. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 69.75%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Manchester United Under-21s had a probability of 12.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a Manchester United Under-21s win it was 1-2 (3.74%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.

Result
Bolton WanderersDrawManchester United Under-21s
69.75% (-0.264 -0.26) 17.35% (0.088999999999999 0.09) 12.89% (0.173 0.17)
Both teams to score 55.12% (0.217 0.22)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.62% (0.019000000000005 0.02)35.38% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.59% (0.020000000000003 0.02)57.41% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02)
Bolton Wanderers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
90.88% (-0.057000000000002 -0.06)9.11% (0.056099999999999 0.06)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
69.06% (-0.133 -0.13)30.94% (0.132 0.13)
Manchester United Under-21s Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.65% (0.276 0.28)39.35% (-0.277 -0.28)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.94% (0.256 0.26)76.05% (-0.25700000000001 -0.26)
Score Analysis
    Bolton Wanderers 69.75%
    Manchester United Under-21s 12.89%
    Draw 17.35%
Bolton WanderersDrawManchester United Under-21s
2-0 @ 10.28% (-0.07 -0.07)
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.014000000000001 0.01)
1-0 @ 8.59% (-0.029999999999999 -0.03)
3-0 @ 8.22% (-0.07 -0.07)
3-1 @ 7.66% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.92% (-0.055 -0.05)
4-1 @ 4.59% (-0.016 -0.02)
3-2 @ 3.57% (0.023 0.02)
5-0 @ 2.36% (-0.032 -0.03)
5-1 @ 2.2% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 2.14% (0.008 0.01)
5-2 @ 1.03% (0.00099999999999989 0)
6-0 @ 0.94% (-0.016 -0.02)
Other @ 3.66%
Total : 69.75%
1-1 @ 8.01% (0.032 0.03)
2-2 @ 4.48% (0.040999999999999 0.04)
0-0 @ 3.59% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-3 @ 1.11% (0.016 0.02)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 17.35%
1-2 @ 3.74% (0.043 0.04)
0-1 @ 3.34% (0.022 0.02)
0-2 @ 1.56% (0.022 0.02)
2-3 @ 1.39% (0.023 0.02)
1-3 @ 1.16% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 1.7%
Total : 12.89%

How you voted: Bolton vs Man Utd U21s

Bolton Wanderers
89.5%
Draw
0.0%
Manchester United Under-21s
10.5%
19
rhs 2.0
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4Manchester CityMan City23125647301741
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle23125641271441
6Chelsea23117545301540
7Bournemouth23117541261540
8Aston Villa2310763435-137
9Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton2381053531434
10Fulham238963431333
11Brentford2394104240231
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd2385102832-429
13Crystal Palace236982630-427
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham2376102844-1627
15Tottenham HotspurSpurs2373134637924
16Everton225891928-923
17Leicester CityLeicester2345142549-2417
18Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2344153252-2016
19Ipswich TownIpswich2337132147-2616
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