Libya could take a massive stride forward in their quest to qualify for Qatar's World Cup 2022 on Friday, when they travel to face their current closest rivals in Group F, Egypt, at the 30 June Air Defence Stadium.
Three points for Libya against Egypt would put them five points clear at the top of the group with three games left to play, and Javier Clemente will want his side to continue their 100% record in the CAF World Cup qualifiers.
Match preview
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Egypt are unbeaten in their opening two qualifying games this year, starting their campaign with a 1-0 win over Angola, and last time out earning a point away against Gabon.
That 1-1 draw in September saw the end for manager Hossam El-Badry, who was sacked by the Egyptian FA after his side had to wait until the 90th minute for an equaliser, which came courtesy of Mostafa Mohamed.
Portuguese manager Carlos Queiroz was announced as El-Badry's successor in September and he hopes that the Pharaohs can develop a winning culture under his leadership to help them on their way to qualifying for the Qatar World Cup.
Egypt's squad would have been disappointed to only draw against Gabon, which allowed table toppers Libya to open a gap between themselves and second place, but after Omar Gaber was sent off for the away side, the 10 players of Egypt can be grateful for the point they did earn in the closing stages of that game.
Libya can achieve their aim of reaching the World Cup this month, with a double-header against Queiroz's new side as the teams meet for a second time on Monday, but that also gives Egypt the opportunity to leapfrog Libya heading into the final two qualifiers in November.
Clemente's team continued their 100% record at the beginning of this qualifying campaign last time out when they travelled to the Estadio 11 de Novembro to face Angola, and they came away with a 1-0 win thanks to a 43rd-minute strike from Omar Al Khoja.
Libya are bidding to make it to their first-ever World Cup finals and they have put themselves into a strong position to do so, but Egypt will want to find redemption after their last World Cup appearance in 2018, when they lost all three group games in Russia.
That was Egypt's first feature at a World Cup since 1990, but three points on Friday, followed by another victory against Libya on Monday will make Queiroz's side favourites to progress from Group F next month.
Friday's meeting is the first time Libya have faced Egypt since 2016, and it will be interesting to see how the home side perform under their new manager, which could be a decisive factor towards the conclusion of this qualifying group.
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Team News
Al Ahly forward Mohamed Sherif played the full 90 minutes of both games for Egypt in September, but he has not been selected in Queiroz's first squad, along with Ahmed Tawfik, Sam Morsey, Mostafa Fathy and Mohamed Hamdi.
Aston Villa's Trezeguet continued to be unavailable for selection as he continues his recovery from a knee injury, and he will miss November's international fixtures as well.
Liverpool's Mohamed Salah has joined the Egypt camp ahead of Friday's outing, along with fellow Premier League-based player Mohamed Elneny of Arsenal.
The Pharaohs are concerned over the fitness of goalkeeper Mohamed El Shenawy after he was forced to stop training due to picking up an injury on Tuesday, meaning that Mohamed Abou-Gabal, Mohamed Bassam or Mohamed Sobhi could start between the posts for Egypt.
Libya are at full strength heading into Friday's game, with most of their 27-man squad based locally in Libya, with the exception of Mohamed Sola, Mohamed Al Joumi and Moatasem Al-Musrati.
Clemente only made one change to the side for their last victory against Angola, with Mohamed Tubal being replaced by Khoja, who took his chance by scoring the winning goal in that game.
Egypt possible starting lineup:
Abou-Gabal; Fetouh, El-Wensh, Ashraf, Elmohamady; Fathi, Hamed, Elneny; Salah, Hassan, Mohamed
Libya possible starting lineup:
Nashnush; Sherif, Salama, Badri, Tuhami; Sabbou, Ellafi, Khoja, Warfali; Houni, Zubya
We say: Egypt 1-0 Libya
This game is expected to be a tight affair with neither of these sides scoring a flurry of goals in this qualifying campaign, but the boost of a new manager could lift Egypt for the final four games of Group F.
Libya's start to this qualifying campaign came as a shock to some, and Egypt will be confident that they can leapfrog the current group leaders this month and put themselves in pole position heading into November's final two games.
Top tip
Sammy Wynne
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Egypt win with a probability of 59.87%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Libya had a probability of 18.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Egypt win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.23%), while for a Libya win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Egypt in this match.
