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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 78.77%. A draw had a probability of 12.6% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 8.64%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.32%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
78.77% ( -0.01) | 12.58% ( 0) | 8.64% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 58.94% ( 0.02) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
76.36% ( 0.01) | 23.63% ( -0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
56.88% ( 0.01) | 43.11% ( -0.02) |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.24% ( -0) | 4.75% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.77% | 19.22% ( -0) |
Fortuna Sittard Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.88% ( 0.02) | 38.11% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.12% ( 0.02) | 74.87% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
3-0 @ 8.54% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.4% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 8.23% 2-1 @ 8.11% ( -0) 4-0 @ 6.5% ( -0) 4-1 @ 6.27% ( 0) 1-0 @ 5.51% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0) 5-0 @ 3.96% ( -0) 5-1 @ 3.82% 4-2 @ 3.03% ( 0) 6-0 @ 2.01% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.94% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1.84% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.97% ( 0) 6-2 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 4.72% Total : 78.77% | 1-1 @ 5.32% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0) 0-0 @ 1.81% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0) Other @ 0.27% Total : 12.58% | 1-2 @ 2.57% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 3.07% Total : 8.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 17 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 59 | 13 | 46 | 45 |
2 | Ajax | 17 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 37 | 16 | 21 | 39 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 36 |
4 | Feyenoord | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 21 | 19 | 35 |
5 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 32 |
6 | FC Twente | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 32 | 21 | 11 | 31 |
7 | Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 25 |
8 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
9 | Willem II | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 22 |
10 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 19 | 27 | -8 | 22 |
11 | Heerenveen | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 21 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 17 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 17 |
14 | Groningen | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 16 |
15 | Heracles | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 33 | -15 | 14 |
16 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 17 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 37 | -27 | 9 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 17 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | 41 | -23 | 7 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |