Eredivisie | Gameweek 25

Mar 12, 2023 at 1.30pm UK

Abe Lenstra Stadion

Heerenveen
2 - 4
Ajax

van Amersfoort (42'), van Hooijdonk (79')
Sahraoui (33'), van Amersfoort (88')

FT(HT: 1-3)

Kudus (10'), Alvarez (16'), Bergwijn (19'), Taylor (52')
Maduro (89'), Berghuis (90+2')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Heerenveen and Ajax, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Heerenveen

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: FC Twente 3-3 Heerenveen
Saturday, March 4 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Ajax 1-0 Nijmegen
Sunday, March 5 at 3.45pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

Top scorers

While there is the possibility that some Ajax minds may wander to next weekend - when they host league-leading Feyenoord - it is unlikely that Heerenveen will be able to take advantage of any dip and end the winning sequence of their once-again ominous visitors. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 64%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 17.25%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.43%) and 1-3 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.24%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 2-1 (4.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Heerenveen	Draw	Ajax
17.25% ( 0.02)	18.75% ( -0.05)	64% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 61.46% (

0.25)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.47% (

0.3)

32.52% (

-0.3)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

45.82% (

0.34)

54.18% (

-0.35)

Heerenveen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.04% (

0.21)

31.95% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.59% (

0.24)

68.41% (

-0.24)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.32% (

0.09)

9.68% (

-0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

67.72% (

0.21)

32.28% (

-0.22)

Score Analysis

Heerenveen 17.25%

Ajax 64%

Draw 18.75%

Heerenveen	Draw	Ajax
2-1 @ 4.7% ( -0) 1-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.09% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.13% Total : 17.25%	1-1 @ 8.24% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.09% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.3% Total : 18.75%	1-2 @ 9.62% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 8.43% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 7.49% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.09) 0-3 @ 6.57% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 4.37% ( 0.03) 2-3 @ 4.27% ( 0.03) 0-4 @ 3.83% ( 0) 2-4 @ 2.49% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 2.04% ( 0.02) 0-5 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 2-5 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) 3-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.76% Total : 64%