Eredivisie | Gameweek 10

Oct 16, 2022 at 7pm UK

Amsterdam Arena

Ajax
7 - 1
Excelsior

Sanchez (15'), Berghuis (26'), Brobbey (44', 59'), Tadic (65'), Bergwijn (75'), Kudus (81')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Agrafiotis (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Eredivisie clash between Ajax and SBV Excelsior, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Ajax

All competitions

Eredivisie

Last Game: Napoli 4-2 Ajax
Wednesday, October 12 at 5.45pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

SBV Excelsior

All competitions

Last Game: Nijmegen 1-1 Excelsior
Saturday, October 8 at 8pm in Eredivisie

Goals
for

We said: Ajax 3-1 SBV Excelsior

Ajax have been breached in each of their last six games, and we expect that to continue here. That said, we are also backing the home side to emerge victorious at the end of the 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 85.07%. A draw had a probability of 9.5% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 5.39%.

The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.47%) and 4-0 (8.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.11%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (1.7%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.

Result
Ajax	Draw	SBV Excelsior
85.07% ( 0.2)	9.53% ( -0.02)	5.39% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 54.28% (

-1.43)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

79.25% (

-0.86)

20.74% (

0.85)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

60.85% (

-1.22)

39.14% (

1.21)

Ajax Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

96.65% (

-0.12)

3.35% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

85.27% (

-0.39)

14.72% (

0.38)

SBV Excelsior Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

56.16% (

-1.42)

43.84% (

1.41)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

20.01% (

-1.19)

79.99% (

1.18)

Score Analysis

Ajax 85.07%

SBV Excelsior 5.39%

Draw 9.53%

Ajax	Draw	SBV Excelsior
3-0 @ 9.59% ( 0.35) 2-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.39) 4-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.22) 3-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 6.98% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.08) 5-0 @ 5.53% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 4.99% ( 0.27) 5-1 @ 4.56% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 3.26% ( -0.14) 6-0 @ 3.13% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.15) 6-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.08) 5-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.12) 7-0 @ 1.52% ( -0) 7-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.05) 6-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.08) Other @ 4.74% Total : 85.07%	1-1 @ 4.11% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 1.47% ( 0.1) Other @ 1.07% Total : 9.53%	1-2 @ 1.7% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.49% Total : 5.39%