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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heerenveen win with a probability of 48.15%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 28.13% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heerenveen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.74%) and 0-2 (7.51%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (6.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Heerenveen would win this match.
Result | ||
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Heerenveen |
28.13% ( 0.07) | 23.72% ( 0.02) | 48.15% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 58.79% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.2% ( -0.03) | 42.81% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.79% ( -0.03) | 65.21% ( 0.04) |
SBV Excelsior Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.65% ( 0.04) | 28.35% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.91% ( 0.04) | 64.09% ( -0.04) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.06% ( -0.04) | 17.94% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.23% ( -0.08) | 48.77% ( 0.08) |
Score Analysis |
SBV Excelsior | Draw | Heerenveen |
2-1 @ 6.94% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.41% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.7% Total : 28.13% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( 0) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 0.21% Total : 23.71% | 1-2 @ 9.46% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 8.74% 0-2 @ 7.51% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.42% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.3% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.42% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.33% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.85% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0) Other @ 3.67% Total : 48.15% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 21 |
2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 16 |
3 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 16 |
4 | FC Twente | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 14 |
5 | Ajax | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
6 | Feyenoord | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
7 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
9 | Groningen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Heracles | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 9 |
11 | Willem II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 8 |
12 | NECNijmegen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
13 | PEC Zwolle | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
14 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
15 | Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 7 |
16 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 6 |
17 | Almere CityAlmere City | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 2 |
18 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 19 | -16 | 0 |
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