Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamrun Spartans win with a probability of 46.18%. A win for Velez had a probability of 30.93% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamrun Spartans win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.06%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest Velez win was 1-2 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamrun Spartans would win this match.