Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Oct 17, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Windsor Park

N. Ireland
0 - 1
Slovenia

Charles (4'), Thompson (59'), Smyth (60'), Evans (87')
Charles (58')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Gnezda Cerin (5')
Elsnik (37'), Sporar (56')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Northern Ireland and Slovenia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Last Game: N. Ireland 3-0 San Marino
Saturday, October 14 at 2pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

Slovenia

All competitions

Last Game: Slovenia 3-0 Finland
Saturday, October 14 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Slovenia	7	10	16
2	Denmark	7	9	16
3	Finland	7	4	12
4	Kazakhstan	7	2	12
5	Northern Ireland	7	-1	6
6	San Marino	7	-24	0

We said: Northern Ireland 1-2 Slovenia

Defences did not come out on top when Northern Ireland and Slovenia locked horns a few weeks ago, and a similar tale should unfold in Belfast, where the visitors have a lot more to fight for than the Green and White Army. Doubts over Sesko's condition could harm Slovenia's prospects of back-to-back wins over Northern Ireland, but the visitors have found goals from numerous sources in qualifying and should fight fire with even more fire to maintain their top-two standing. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 47.01%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Slovenia had a probability of 23.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.07%) and 2-1 (8.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.86%), while for a Slovenia win it was 0-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Slovenia would win this match.

Result
Northern Ireland	Draw	Slovenia
47.01% ( 2.71)	29.24% ( -0.57)	23.75% ( -2.14)

Both teams to score 39.5% (

-0.27)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

33.97% (

0.51)

66.04% (

-0.51)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

15.39% (

0.35)

84.61% (

-0.35)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.56% (

1.7)

28.44% (

-1.7)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.8% (

2.09)

64.21% (

-2.09)

Slovenia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.21% (

-1.72)

44.8% (

1.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.23% (

-1.42)

80.77% (

1.42)

Score Analysis

Northern Ireland 47%

Slovenia 23.75%

Draw 29.24%

Northern Ireland	Draw	Slovenia
1-0 @ 16.01% ( 0.45) 2-0 @ 10.07% ( 0.73) 2-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.22) 3-0 @ 4.22% ( 0.49) 3-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.25) 3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0.12) Other @ 1.48% Total : 47%	1-1 @ 12.86% ( -0.25) 0-0 @ 12.74% ( -0.24) 2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.39% Total : 29.24%	0-1 @ 10.23% ( -0.7) 1-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.36) 0-2 @ 4.11% ( -0.5) 1-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.17) 0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.19) Other @ 1.76% Total : 23.75%