Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 10, 2023 at 2pm UK

Astana Arena

Kazakhstan
1 - 0
N. Ireland

Samorodov (27')
Samorodov (30'), Tagybergen (73'), Kuat (77'), Dosmagambetov (87'), Bystrov (90'), Zainutdinov (90+7')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ballard (83'), McNair (90+5'), Thompson (90+7'), O'Neill (90+8')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Kazakhstan and Northern Ireland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Kazakhstan

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Kazakhstan 0-1 Finland
Thursday, September 7 at 3pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Finland	5	8	12
2	Denmark	5	6	10
3	Slovenia	5	3	10
4	Kazakhstan	5	3	9
5	Northern Ireland	5	-3	3
6	San Marino	5	-17	0

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Slovenia 4-2 N. Ireland
Thursday, September 7 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current Group H Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Finland	5	8	12
2	Denmark	5	6	10
3	Slovenia	5	3	10
4	Kazakhstan	5	3	9
5	Northern Ireland	5	-3	3
6	San Marino	5	-17	0

We said: Kazakhstan 2-1 Northern Ireland

Carrying a four-game losing streak into Sunday's showdown, struggling Northern Ireland are on course to suffer a fifth successive defeat at the expense of Kazakhstan, who look set to strengthen their qualification bid with a fourth victory in five outings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 51.12%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 0-1 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.94%) and 1-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 1-0 (7.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.

Result
Kazakhstan	Draw	Northern Ireland
23.1% ( 0.16)	25.78% ( 0.01)	51.12% ( -0.16)

Both teams to score 47.59% (

0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.71% (

0.12)

55.3% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.49% (

0.09)

76.52% (

-0.09)

Kazakhstan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.76% (

0.22)

39.24% (

-0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.06% (

0.2)

75.95% (

-0.2)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.33% (

-0.02)

21.68% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.18% (

-0.04)

54.82% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Kazakhstan 23.1%

Northern Ireland 51.12%

Draw 25.77%

Kazakhstan	Draw	Northern Ireland
1-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 5.69% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.72% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 1.16% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.44% Total : 23.1%	1-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 4.35% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.77%	0-1 @ 13% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 9.94% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 9.3% ( 0) 0-3 @ 5.07% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.74% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.81% ( -0) Other @ 3.1% Total : 51.12%