Euro 2024

Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage

Mar 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Windsor Park

N. Ireland
0 - 1
Finland

Charles (74')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Kallman (28')
Jensen (48'), Soiri (90+4')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Northern Ireland and Finland, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Northern Ireland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: San Marino 0-2 N. Ireland
Thursday, March 23 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current League C2 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Northern Ireland	0	0	0
2	Greece	0	0	0
3	Cyprus	0	0	0
4	Kosovo	0	0	0

Finland

All competitions

Euro Champ Qualifying

Last Game: Denmark 3-1 Finland
Thursday, March 23 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Current League B3 Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Bosnia-Herzegovina	0	0	0
2	Montenegro	0	0	0
3	Finland	0	0	0
4	Romania	0	0	0

We said: Northern Ireland 1-1 Finland

Although we remain in the early stages of the group, this is a potentially-pivotal fixture for these nations. With both teams aware that avoiding defeat is imperative, a low-scoring draw feels like the most likely outcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Finland had a probability of 29.65% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.21%) and 2-1 (8.16%). The likeliest Finland win was 0-1 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.

Result
Northern Ireland	Draw	Finland
41.73% ( 0.09)	28.62% ( -0.01)	29.65% ( -0.08)

Both teams to score 44.68% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.52% (

0.03)

61.48% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.65% (

0.02)

81.35% (

-0.02)

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.94% (

0.06)

29.06% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.03% (

0.08)

64.97% (

-0.08)

Finland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.98% (

-0.04)

37.01% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.2% (

-0.05)

73.8% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Northern Ireland 41.73%

Finland 29.65%

Draw 28.62%

Northern Ireland	Draw	Finland
1-0 @ 13.29% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.38% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.36% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.04% ( 0) Other @ 1.55% Total : 41.73%	1-1 @ 13.21% 0-0 @ 10.75% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.06% ( 0) Other @ 0.6% Total : 28.62%	0-1 @ 10.69% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 1.8% Total : 29.65%