FA Cup

FA Cup | Third Round

Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK

Home Park

Plymouth
3 - 1
Sutton

Cundle (18'), Hardie (68' pen.), Whittaker (90+1')
Edwards (65')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Angol (50')
Kizzi (34'), Clay (60')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's FA Cup clash between Plymouth Argyle and Sutton United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Plymouth Argyle

All competitions

Last Game: Plymouth 3-3 Watford
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in Championship

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sutton United

All competitions

FA Cup

Last Game: Sutton 1-1 Newport
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Plymouth Argyle 3-0 Sutton United

Plymouth have failed to get any wins since the departure of Schumacher but will be confident of breaking their winless streak on Saturday afternoon. Sutton have struggled in League Two this season, and it is hard to imagine the visitors advancing into the fourth round at Home Park. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 57.36%. A win for Sutton United had a probability of 21.49% and a draw had a probability of 21.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.31%) and 1-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Sutton United win was 1-2 (5.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.58%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.

Result
Plymouth Argyle	Draw	Sutton United
57.36% ( -0.17)	21.15% ( -0.01)	21.49% ( 0.2)

Both teams to score 60.35% (

0.36)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.59% (

0.34)

37.41% (

-0.33)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.37% (

0.36)

59.64% (

-0.36)

Plymouth Argyle Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.09% (

0.06)

12.91% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.66% (

0.12)

39.34% (

-0.11)

Sutton United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.29% (

0.37)

30.71% (

-0.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.03% (

0.43)

66.97% (

-0.43)

Score Analysis

Plymouth Argyle 57.36%

Sutton United 21.49%

Draw 21.15%

Plymouth Argyle	Draw	Sutton United
2-1 @ 9.81% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 8.31% ( -0.1) 1-0 @ 8.12% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 6.69% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 2.02% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.88% Total : 57.36%	1-1 @ 9.58% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 3.97% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.26% Total : 21.15%	1-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 4.68% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.76% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.8% Total : 21.49%