On top in a tussle between two football titans, Germany will aim to seal progress into the UEFA Nations League semi-finals by finishing the job against Italy on Sunday evening.
After Thursday's first-leg success at San Siro, Die Nationalelf are on course to make a belated debut at the finals tournament, which they would host if the Azzurri are knocked out.
Match preview
© Imago
Fighting back from behind to claim a 2-1 lead in their quarter-final tie, Germany relied on captain Joshua Kimmich for inspiration, as the Bayern Munich star set up both goals in Milan.
Never slow to shake things up when required, Bundestrainer Julian Nagelsmann responded to his team's deficit with two changes at half time, and substitute striker Tim Kleindienst soon headed home a Kimmich cross to equalise.
Back in the fold after more than a year out of favour, Leon Goretzka then capped a fine return to the international scene by nodding in the second, earning Germany's first win in Italy since February 1986.
Nagelsmann's side are now unbeaten in eight Nations League matches, and - stretching back over the past year or so - Die Mannschaft have won 11 and drawn four of their last 16 games overall.
Despite some flux in terms of personnel - due to injuries and retirements - the Germans are taking part in the knockout phase for the very first time, having failed to reach the finals on each of three previous attempts.
Keen to claim a rare piece of missing silverware before mounting an assault on next year's World Cup, they now intend to secure their semi-final spot in Dortmund; then, either Denmark or Portugal would await in the last four.
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Still hoping to make it through to the semis for a third consecutive edition, Italy failed to fully capitalise after scoring with their first attack on Thursday, when a deflected Matteo Politano cross set up Sandro Tonali's opener.
That gave the Azzurri a slim lead until shortly after the restart, when their well-documented weakness at set pieces again reared its ugly head, with Germany netting the winner following a corner kick.
Though they then applied plenty of late pressure, forcing Oliver Baumann to make several saves, Italy ultimately suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time since Cesare Prandelli's reign of a decade ago.
They had finished 2024 by losing 3-1 at home to France, resulting in a runners-up finish in League A Group 2 that pitched them against Germany in the last eight.
Having won Euro 2020 only to miss out on qualification for two World Cups either side, La Nazionale's priority remains reaching the 2026 global finals, but turning this tie around would still be a significant moment for coach Luciano Spalletti.
Not only would an aggregate victory see Italy host June's Nations League tournament, but they would still have a shot at winning UEFA's newest international trophy for the first time to date.
Team News
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After Julian Nagelsmann selected Mainz striker Jonathan Burkardt instead of Tim Kleindienst in Milan - both have 15 Bundesliga goals to their name this season - those roles could be reversed following the latter's successful second-half appearance.
Kleindienst has now found the net three times in as many international matches, having also scored twice against Bosnia-Herzegovina in November; Deniz Undav of Stuttgart is an alternative option.
Leon Goretzka was declared Nagelsmann's unofficial 'Man of the Match' at San Siro and is again set to start in midfield, but Robert Andrich and Angelo Stiller are both vying with Borussia Dortmund's Pascal Gross - who hopes to feature on home turf - for selection.
Rotation is likely to be limited, as Germany have a number of significant absences: Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Marc-Andre ter Stegen and Florian Wirtz are all sidelined by injury.
Their visitors, meanwhile, are without Serie A top scorer Mateo Retegui and preferred left wing-back Federico Dimarco, while there are doubts regarding the fitness of Riccardo Calafiori.
The Arsenal defender managed to complete 90 minutes on Thursday, but he was seen limping after the game following an awkward slip; Alessandro Buongiorno is therefore on standby to start on the left side of Italy's back three.
In better news for Luciano Spalletti, versatile wide man Andrea Cambiaso should now be available, and Lazio captain Mattia Zaccagni will benefit from three more days of recovery.
Sure to feature in midfield, Sandro Tonali has two goals and two assists on the board from seven Nations League appearances this season.
Germany possible starting lineup:
Baumann; Kimmich, Rudiger, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstadt; Goretzka, Gross; Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi; Kleindienst
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Buongiorno; Bellanova, Barella, Ricci, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Kean
We say: Germany 1-1 Italy (Germany win 3-2 on aggregate)
It would be fair to expect another tight contest in Germany, as Italy will go all-out to overturn their first-leg loss - but they are set to come up just short.
The Azzurri have scored in all but one of their last 20 Nations League matches, finding the net before half time in the last 10, so another first-half strike could set up a frantic finale.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
Jonathan O'Shea
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